Minnesota Wild at Montreal Canadiens, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MTL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wild- Frederick GaudreauGoals1
- Yakov TreninAssists2
- Frederick GaudreauPoints2
CanadiensScoring summary
- P318:33Frederick Gaudreau Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Yakov Trenin (6), Jared Spurgeon (11)4–0
- P35:56Devin Shore Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Marco Rossi (28)3–0
- P25:47Marco Rossi Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Marcus Foligno (11), Ryan Hartman (10)2–0
- P23:41Liam Ohgren Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Frederick Gaudreau (13), Yakov Trenin (5)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P23:41Liam Ohgren Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Frederick Gaudreau (13), Yakov Trenin (5)MIN 1 – 0 MTL · MIN 44% → 62% +18MIN 44% → 62%+18 pts
- P25:47Marco Rossi Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Marcus Foligno (11), Ryan Hartman (10)MIN 2 – 0 MTL · MIN 63% → 79% +16MIN 63% → 79%+16 pts
- P35:56Devin Shore Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Marco Rossi (28)MIN 3 – 0 MTL · MIN 92% → 98% +6MIN 92% → 98%+6 pts
- P318:33Frederick Gaudreau Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Yakov Trenin (6), Jared Spurgeon (11)MIN 4 – 0 MTL · MIN >99% → 100% +0MIN >99% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Canadiens 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- MTL 58%
- ML MIN +130 / MTL -150
- Pre-line forecast
- MTL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MTL 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.8 pts
- MTL: Elo 57.2%, market 58.0%
- Fair odds
- MTL -138
- MIN +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 3.0 – 3.5 MTL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | MTL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1468 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | MIN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −11 | +18 | MIN: Marc-Andre Fleury: team allows 0.29 more goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) · MTL: Jakub Dobes: team allows 0.45 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MTL +51 Elo | MTL 57.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MTL 56.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MTL 56.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MTL 58.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MIN | Stat | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 3.014th of 32 |
| 11th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 3.427th of 32 |
| 12th of 32+0.1 | Margin | −0.425th of 32 |
| 24th of 3248.4% | Shot share | 47.0%29th of 32 |
| 7th of 3290.9% | Save percentage | 89.2%28th of 32 |
| 20th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 32 |
| 1st of 3219–8 | Road vs home | 13–1318th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  MTL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 26–25 | 30–20 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 14–16 | 1–2 |
| Underdog | 12–9 | 29–18 |
| Overs–unders | 24–27 | 27–23 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 3–0 MTL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.