New York Islanders at Minnesota Wild, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Islanders- Kyle PalmieriGoals1
- Maxim TsyplakovAssists2
- Kyle PalmieriPoints2
Wild- Marcus FolignoGoals1
- Jared SpurgeonAssists2
- Jared SpurgeonPoints2
Scoring summary
- P315:46Marcus Foligno Goal (10) Backhand, assists: none3–6
- P35:53Matt Boldy Goal (20) , assists: none3–5
- P218:50Yakov Trenin Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Jake Middleton (11), Marat Khusnutdinov (5)3–4
- P217:59Matt Boldy Goal (19) Tip-In, assists: Jonas Brodin (14), Jared Spurgeon (14)3–3
- P213:21Frederick Gaudreau Goal (11) Slap Shot, assists: Liam Ohgren (3), Brock Faber (16)3–2
- P27:17Anders Lee Goal (23) Tip-In, assists: Scott Perunovich (7)3–1
- P20:28Brock Nelson Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Maxim Tsyplakov (18), Kyle Palmieri (21)2–1
- P13:32Kyle Palmieri Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Brock Nelson (18), Maxim Tsyplakov (17)1–1
- P13:19Marco Rossi Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Boldy (28), Jared Spurgeon (13)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P20:28Brock Nelson Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Maxim Tsyplakov (18), Kyle Palmieri (21)NYI 2 – 1 MIN · NYI 43% → 61% +18NYI 43% → 61%+18 pts
- P27:17Anders Lee Goal (23) Tip-In, assists: Scott Perunovich (7)NYI 3 – 1 MIN · NYI 63% → 80% +16NYI 63% → 80%+16 pts
- P213:21Frederick Gaudreau Goal (11) Slap Shot, assists: Liam Ohgren (3), Brock Faber (16)NYI 3 – 2 MIN · MIN 17% → 34% +17MIN 17% → 34%+17 pts
- P217:59Matt Boldy Goal (19) Tip-In, assists: Jonas Brodin (14), Jared Spurgeon (14)NYI 3 – 3 MIN · MIN 32% → 55% +23MIN 32% → 55%+23 pts
- P218:50Yakov Trenin Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Jake Middleton (11), Marat Khusnutdinov (5)NYI 3 – 4 MIN · MIN 55% → 77% +22MIN 55% → 77%+22 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Wild 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 58%
- ML NYI +130 / MIN -155
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.6 pts
- MIN: Elo 62.9%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- MIN -140
- NYI +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYI 2.5 – 3.0 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYI | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1487 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | NYI on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +2 | +4 | NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) · MIN: Filip Gustavsson: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +92 Elo | MIN 62.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 58.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 59.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYI | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 322.8 | Goals scored | 2.920th of 32 |
| 13th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 2.811th of 32 |
| 17th of 32−0.1 | Margin | 0.014th of 32 |
| 12th of 3250.3% | Shot share | 47.9%27th of 32 |
| 9th of 3290.8% | Save percentage | 91.1%6th of 32 |
| 1st of 328–2 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 32 |
| 18th of 3212–16 | Road vs home | 12–1324th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYI |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 27–27 | 28–27 |
| Last 10 | 9–1 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 7–20 | 14–16 |
| Underdog | 20–7 | 14–11 |
| Overs–unders | 27–27 | 25–30 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYI 0–2 MIN in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.