New York Islanders at Florida Panthers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors FLA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Islanders- Marc GatcombGoals1
- Tony DeAngeloAssists1
- Jean-Gabriel PageauPoints1
Panthers- Carter VerhaegheGoals3
- Carter VerhaegheAssists1
- Carter VerhaeghePoints4
Scoring summary
- P318:21Matthew Tkachuk Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Aaron Ekblad (22), Carter Verhaeghe (26)3–6
- P310:41Carter Verhaeghe Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (32), Aleksander Barkov (35)3–5
- P219:09Sam Reinhart Goal (31) Wrist Shot, assists: Gustav Forsling (13), Aleksander Barkov (34)3–4
- P217:52Evan Rodrigues Goal (13) Backhand, assists: Anton Lundell (23), Eetu Luostarinen (12)3–3
- P214:51Marc Gatcomb Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Adam Pelech (13), Maxim Tsyplakov (15)3–2
- P210:00Jean-Gabriel Pageau Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Casey Cizikas (5), Dennis Cholowski (7)2–2
- P23:10Kyle MacLean Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Anthony DeAngelo (2), Dennis Cholowski (6)1–2
- P112:52Carter Verhaeghe Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Gustav Forsling (12)0–2
- P10:39Carter Verhaeghe Goal (13) Backhand, assists: Sam Reinhart (28), Aleksander Barkov (33)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:39Carter Verhaeghe Goal (13) Backhand, assists: Sam Reinhart (28), Aleksander Barkov (33)NYI 0 – 1 FLA · FLA 70% → 81% +11FLA 70% → 81%+11 pts
- P210:00Jean-Gabriel Pageau Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Casey Cizikas (5), Dennis Cholowski (7)NYI 2 – 2 FLA · NYI 19% → 36% +17NYI 19% → 36%+17 pts
- P214:51Marc Gatcomb Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Adam Pelech (13), Maxim Tsyplakov (15)NYI 3 – 2 FLA · NYI 37% → 59% +22NYI 37% → 59%+22 pts
- P217:52Evan Rodrigues Goal (13) Backhand, assists: Anton Lundell (23), Eetu Luostarinen (12)NYI 3 – 3 FLA · FLA 39% → 63% +24FLA 39% → 63%+24 pts
- P219:09Sam Reinhart Goal (31) Wrist Shot, assists: Gustav Forsling (13), Aleksander Barkov (34)NYI 3 – 4 FLA · FLA 62% → 82% +20FLA 62% → 82%+20 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Panthers 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 76.2% of 172 graded games.
- Market
- FLA 70%
- ML NYI +220 / FLA -270
- Pre-line forecast
- FLA 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- FLA 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.2 pts
- FLA: Elo 63.8%, market 70.0%
- Fair odds
- FLA -234
- NYI +234 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYI 2.2 – 3.3 FLA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYI | FLA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1489 | 1554 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | −30 | FLA and NYI on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | 0 | −1 | NYI: Jakub Skarek (no track record yet) · FLA: Spencer Knight: team allows 0.03 more goals than with its usual starter (≈15 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | FLA +99 Elo | FLA 63.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | FLA 66.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | FLA 66.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | FLA 70.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYI | Stat | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 322.8 | Goals scored | 3.37th of 32 |
| 11th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 2.914th of 32 |
| 16th of 32−0.1 | Margin | +0.49th of 32 |
| 12th of 3250.5% | Shot share | 53.6%3rd of 32 |
| 8th of 3290.9% | Save percentage | 90.3%14th of 32 |
| 1st of 328–2 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 32 |
| 13th of 3212–14 | Road vs home | 14–1115th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYI |  FLA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 25–26 | 27–26 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 7–20 | 19–23 |
| Underdog | 18–6 | 8–3 |
| Overs–unders | 25–26 | 27–26 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYI 2–2 FLA in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.