Los Angeles Kings at Florida Panthers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors FLA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings
Panthers- Dmitry KulikovAssists1
- Dmitry KulikovPoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:48Matthew Tkachuk Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Eetu Luostarinen (11), Aaron Ekblad (20)0–3
- P34:43Aleksander Barkov Goal (12) Backhand, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (31), Sam Reinhart (25)0–2
- P14:55Sam Bennett Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (30), Dmitry Kulikov (8)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:55Sam Bennett Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (30), Dmitry Kulikov (8)LA 0 – 1 FLA · FLA 58% → 72% +14FLA 58% → 72%+14 pts
- P34:43Aleksander Barkov Goal (12) Backhand, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (31), Sam Reinhart (25)LA 0 – 2 FLA · FLA 80% → 94% +14FLA 80% → 94%+14 pts
- P318:48Matthew Tkachuk Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Eetu Luostarinen (11), Aaron Ekblad (20)LA 0 – 3 FLA · FLA >99% → >99% +0FLA >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Panthers 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- FLA 58%
- ML LA +130 / FLA -150
- Pre-line forecast
- FLA 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- FLA 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.2 pts
- FLA: Elo 59.2%, market 58.0%
- Fair odds
- FLA -138
- LA +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LA 2.5 – 3.0 FLA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LA | FLA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1522 | 1548 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | +2 | LA: Darcy Kuemper: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) · FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | FLA +65 Elo | FLA 59.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | FLA 60.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | FLA 60.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | FLA 58.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| LA | Stat | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 322.9 | Goals scored | 3.38th of 32 |
| 4th of 322.5 | Goals allowed | 3.015th of 32 |
| 9th of 32+0.3 | Margin | +0.310th of 32 |
| 8th of 3252.2% | Shot share | 53.3%4th of 32 |
| 12th of 3290.5% | Save percentage | 90.0%18th of 32 |
| 20th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 32 |
| 24th of 3211–17 | Road vs home | 12–1116th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LA |  FLA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 22–25 | 25–26 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 9–19 | 17–23 |
| Underdog | 13–6 | 8–3 |
| Overs–unders | 18–29 | 26–25 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LA 2–1 FLA in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.