Chicago Blackhawks at Florida Panthers, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors FLA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blackhawks- Landon SlaggertGoals1
- Ryan DonatoAssists1
- Landon SlaggertPoints1
Panthers- Carter VerhaegheGoals1
- Carter VerhaegheAssists1
- Carter VerhaeghePoints2
Scoring summary
- P39:37Carter Verhaeghe Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Reinhart (27), Aleksander Barkov (32)1–5
- P30:10Evan Rodrigues Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Anton Lundell (22)1–4
- P216:29Matthew Tkachuk Goal (17) Tip-In, assists: Sam Reinhart (26), Carter Verhaeghe (25)1–3
- P110:19Sam Reinhart Goal (30) Wrist Shot, assists: Aleksander Barkov (31), Aaron Ekblad (21)1–2
- P15:28Jonah Gadjovich Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: A.J. Greer (8), Niko Mikkola (13)1–1
- P10:07Landon Slaggert Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Ryan Donato (15)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:07Landon Slaggert Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Ryan Donato (15)CHI 1 – 0 FLA · CHI 22% → 34% +12CHI 22% → 34%+12 pts
- P15:28Jonah Gadjovich Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: A.J. Greer (8), Niko Mikkola (13)CHI 1 – 1 FLA · FLA 64% → 77% +13FLA 64% → 77%+13 pts
- P110:19Sam Reinhart Goal (30) Wrist Shot, assists: Aleksander Barkov (31), Aaron Ekblad (21)CHI 1 – 2 FLA · FLA 76% → 87% +11FLA 76% → 87%+11 pts
- P216:29Matthew Tkachuk Goal (17) Tip-In, assists: Sam Reinhart (26), Carter Verhaeghe (25)CHI 1 – 3 FLA · FLA 86% → 95% +9FLA 86% → 95%+9 pts
- P30:10Evan Rodrigues Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Anton Lundell (22)CHI 1 – 4 FLA · FLA 96% → >99% +3FLA 96% → >99%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Panthers 78%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 88.6% of 44 graded games.
- Market
- FLA 78%
- ML CHI +340 / FLA -450
- Pre-line forecast
- FLA 80%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- FLA 74%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.9 pts
- FLA: Elo 74.4%, market 78.3%
- Fair odds
- FLA -360
- CHI +360 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 1.9 – 3.6 FLA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | FLA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1405 | 1552 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | +4 | CHI: Petr Mrazek: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) · FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | FLA +185 Elo | FLA 74.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | FLA 80.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | FLA 79.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | FLA 78.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CHI | Stat | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 322.6 | Goals scored | 3.39th of 32 |
| 28th of 323.4 | Goals allowed | 2.914th of 32 |
| 31st of 32−0.8 | Margin | +0.39th of 32 |
| 32nd of 3244.0% | Shot share | 53.4%4th of 32 |
| 18th of 3290.1% | Save percentage | 90.2%15th of 32 |
| 30th of 322–8 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 32 |
| 30th of 326–19 | Road vs home | 13–1115th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  FLA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 27–24 | 26–26 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 1–3 | 18–23 |
| Underdog | 26–21 | 8–3 |
| Overs–unders | 25–26 | 26–26 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 2–1 FLA in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.