Chicago Blackhawks at Carolina Hurricanes, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blackhawks- Ilya MikheyevGoals1
- Nick FolignoAssists1
- Ilya MikheyevPoints1
Hurricanes- Juha JaaskaAssists2
- Juha JaaskaPoints2
Scoring summary
- P36:29Connor Bedard Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Seth Jones (19)2–3
- P25:59Jaccob Slavin Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Jackson Blake (7), Juha Jaaska (3)1–3
- P24:52Mikko Rantanen Goal (26) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Roslovic (9), Dmitry Orlov (20)1–2
- P118:38Ilya Mikheyev Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Nick Foligno (12), Jason Dickinson (9)1–1
- P116:57Seth Jarvis Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Juha Jaaska (2)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P116:57Seth Jarvis Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Juha Jaaska (2)CHI 0 – 1 CAR · CAR 74% → 86% +12CAR 74% → 86%+12 pts
- P118:38Ilya Mikheyev Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Nick Foligno (12), Jason Dickinson (9)CHI 1 – 1 CAR · CHI 14% → 27% +12CHI 14% → 27%+12 pts
- P24:52Mikko Rantanen Goal (26) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Roslovic (9), Dmitry Orlov (20)CHI 1 – 2 CAR · CAR 72% → 85% +14CAR 72% → 85%+14 pts
- P25:59Jaccob Slavin Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Jackson Blake (7), Juha Jaaska (3)CHI 1 – 3 CAR · CAR 85% → 94% +8CAR 85% → 94%+8 pts
- P36:29Connor Bedard Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Seth Jones (19)CHI 2 – 3 CAR · CHI 3% → 13% +10CHI 3% → 13%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hurricanes 77%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 88.6% of 44 graded games.
- Market
- CAR 77%
- ML CHI +320 / CAR -425
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 79%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 75%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.1 pts
- CAR: Elo 75.2%, market 77.3%
- Fair odds
- CAR -340
- CHI +340 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 2.4 – 4.1 CAR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | CAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1406 | 1560 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −2 | +1 | CHI: Arvid Soderblom: team allows 0.06 more goals than with its usual starter (≈30 weighted starts) · CAR: Pyotr Kochetkov: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +193 Elo | CAR 75.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 80.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 79.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 77.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CHI | Stat | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 322.6 | Goals scored | 3.46th of 32 |
| 28th of 323.4 | Goals allowed | 2.78th of 32 |
| 31st of 32−0.8 | Margin | +0.66th of 32 |
| 32nd of 3244.1% | Shot share | 56.0%1st of 32 |
| 17th of 3290.1% | Save percentage | 89.8%22nd of 32 |
| 28th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 32 |
| 30th of 326–18 | Road vs home | 19–62nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  CAR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 26–24 | 25–26 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 1–3 | 22–24 |
| Underdog | 25–21 | 3–2 |
| Overs–unders | 25–25 | 21–30 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 0–3 CAR in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.