Chicago Blackhawks at Tampa Bay Lightning, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blackhawks- Landon SlaggertGoals1
- Nick FolignoAssists1
- Ryan DonatoPoints1
Lightning- Nikita KucherovAssists1
- Nikita KucherovPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:03Teuvo Teravainen Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Jason Dickinson (8)4–1
- P38:02Ryan Donato Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Seth Jones (18), Philipp Kurashev (4)3–1
- P218:14Landon Slaggert Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Lukas Reichel (11)2–1
- P210:19Connor Bedard Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Seth Jones (17), Nick Foligno (11)1–1
- P13:34Brayden Point Goal (28) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (51), Jake Guentzel (25)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:34Brayden Point Goal (28) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (51), Jake Guentzel (25)CHI 0 – 1 TB · TB 73% → 84% +11TB 73% → 84%+11 pts
- P210:19Connor Bedard Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Seth Jones (17), Nick Foligno (11)CHI 1 – 1 TB · CHI 17% → 32% +16CHI 17% → 32%+16 pts
- P218:14Landon Slaggert Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Lukas Reichel (11)CHI 2 – 1 TB · CHI 35% → 59% +24CHI 35% → 59%+24 pts
- P38:02Ryan Donato Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Seth Jones (18), Philipp Kurashev (4)CHI 3 – 1 TB · CHI 70% → 91% +21CHI 70% → 91%+21 pts
- P319:03Teuvo Teravainen Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Jason Dickinson (8)CHI 4 – 1 TB · CHI >99% → 100% +0CHI >99% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lightning 74%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 76.2% of 172 graded games.
- Market
- TB 74%
- ML CHI +270 / TB -340
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 76%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 72%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.3 pts
- TB: Elo 71.8%, market 74.1%
- Fair odds
- TB -286
- CHI +286 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 2.5 – 4.0 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1399 | 1534 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −6 | −14 | CHI: Arvid Soderblom: team allows 0.14 more goals than with its usual starter (≈30 weighted starts) · TB: Jonas Johansson: team allows 0.35 more goals than with its usual starter (≈25 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +162 Elo | TB 71.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 77.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 76.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 74.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CHI | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 31st of 322.6 | Goals scored | 3.61st of 32 |
| 30th of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 2.810th of 32 |
| 31st of 32−0.9 | Margin | +0.73rd of 32 |
| 32nd of 3244.2% | Shot share | 50.5%12th of 32 |
| 20th of 3289.9% | Save percentage | 91.0%4th of 32 |
| 31st of 322–8 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 32 |
| 32nd of 325–18 | Road vs home | 15–76th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 25–24 | 24–24 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 1–3 | 15–17 |
| Underdog | 24–21 | 9–7 |
| Overs–unders | 25–24 | 21–27 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 1–2 TB in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.