New York Islanders at Tampa Bay Lightning, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Islanders- Adam BoqvistGoals1
- Simon HolmstromAssists2
- Simon HolmstromPoints2
Lightning- Nikita KucherovGoals1
- Darren RaddyshAssists1
- Nikita KucherovPoints1
Scoring summary
- OT0:33Anthony DeAngelo Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Bo Horvat (21), Simon Holmstrom (16)3–2
- P319:13Nikita Kucherov Goal (24) Snap Shot, assists: Darren Raddysh (19), Brayden Point (25)2–2
- P36:41Kyle Palmieri Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Maxim Tsyplakov (14)2–1
- P218:16Adam Boqvist Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Mathew Barzal (14), Simon Holmstrom (15)1–1
- P25:39Jake Guentzel Goal (26) Tip-In, assists: Erik Cernak (11), Gage Goncalves (3)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P25:39Jake Guentzel Goal (26) Tip-In, assists: Erik Cernak (11), Gage Goncalves (3)NYI 0 – 1 TB · TB 58% → 75% +17TB 58% → 75%+17 pts
- P218:16Adam Boqvist Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Mathew Barzal (14), Simon Holmstrom (15)NYI 1 – 1 TB · NYI 22% → 44% +21NYI 22% → 44%+21 pts
- P36:41Kyle Palmieri Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Maxim Tsyplakov (14)NYI 2 – 1 TB · NYI 45% → 74% +29NYI 45% → 74%+29 pts
- P319:13Nikita Kucherov Goal (24) Snap Shot, assists: Darren Raddysh (19), Brayden Point (25)NYI 2 – 2 TB · TB <1% → 51% +51TB <1% → 51%+51 pts
- OT0:33Anthony DeAngelo Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Bo Horvat (21), Simon Holmstrom (16)NYI 3 – 2 TB · NYI 47% → 90% +43NYI 47% → 90%+43 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lightning 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- TB 61%
- ML NYI +145 / TB -170
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.9 pts
- TB: Elo 62.6%, market 60.7%
- Fair odds
- TB -154
- NYI +154 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYI 2.4 – 3.1 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYI | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1486 | 1531 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | +11 | NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) · TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.27 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +89 Elo | TB 62.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 62.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 62.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 60.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYI | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 322.8 | Goals scored | 3.52nd of 32 |
| 12th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 2.810th of 32 |
| 16th of 32−0.1 | Margin | +0.74th of 32 |
| 13th of 3250.4% | Shot share | 50.8%11th of 32 |
| 8th of 3290.8% | Save percentage | 91.1%4th of 32 |
| 1st of 328–2 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 32 |
| 18th of 3211–14 | Road vs home | 16–87th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYI |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 24–26 | 25–25 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 7–20 | 16–18 |
| Underdog | 17–6 | 9–7 |
| Overs–unders | 25–25 | 21–29 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYI 1–2 TB in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.