Colorado Avalanche at New York Islanders, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Avalanche- Jack DruryGoals1
- Martin NecasAssists2
- Martin NecasPoints2
Islanders- Simon HolmstromGoals2
- Jean-Gabriel PageauAssists2
- Simon HolmstromPoints3
Scoring summary
- P318:50Simon Holmstrom Goal (12) Backhand, assists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau (15)2–5
- P317:31Alexander Romanov Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Simon Holmstrom (14), Casey Cizikas (3)2–4
- P314:55Jack Drury Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Martin Necas (43), Josh Manson (12)2–3
- P311:23Bo Horvat Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Anders Lee (17), Scott Perunovich (5)1–3
- P31:54Simon Holmstrom Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau (14)1–2
- P213:00Artturi Lehkonen Goal (21) Tip-In, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (59), Martin Necas (42)1–1
- P24:11Anders Lee Goal (22) Backhand, assists: Brock Nelson (17), Anthony DeAngelo (1)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P24:11Anders Lee Goal (22) Backhand, assists: Brock Nelson (17), Anthony DeAngelo (1)COL 0 – 1 NYI · NYI 46% → 64% +19NYI 46% → 64%+19 pts
- P213:00Artturi Lehkonen Goal (21) Tip-In, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (59), Martin Necas (42)COL 1 – 1 NYI · COL 32% → 54% +21COL 32% → 54%+21 pts
- P31:54Simon Holmstrom Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau (14)COL 1 – 2 NYI · NYI 47% → 72% +25NYI 47% → 72%+25 pts
- P311:23Bo Horvat Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Anders Lee (17), Scott Perunovich (5)COL 1 – 3 NYI · NYI 82% → 97% +15NYI 82% → 97%+15 pts
- P314:55Jack Drury Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Martin Necas (43), Josh Manson (12)COL 2 – 3 NYI · COL <1% → 11% +11COL <1% → 11%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Avalanche 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- COL 55%
- ML COL -135 / NYI +115
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.8 pts
- COL: Elo 54.5%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- COL -124
- NYI +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 2.9 – 2.6 NYI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | NYI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1540 | 1477 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | −3 | COL: Mackenzie Blackwood: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) · NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.07 more goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +31 Elo | COL 54.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 54.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 54.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| COL | Stat | NYI |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 2.728th of 32 |
| 21st of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 2.913th of 32 |
| 12th of 32+0.2 | Margin | −0.218th of 32 |
| 7th of 3252.3% | Shot share | 50.4%13th of 32 |
| 26th of 3289.4% | Save percentage | 90.6%11th of 32 |
| 20th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 7–31st of 32 |
| 5th of 3215–10 | Road vs home | 11–1324th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  NYI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 19–32 | 22–26 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 14–26 | 6–20 |
| Underdog | 5–6 | 16–6 |
| Overs–unders | 26–25 | 24–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 2–1 NYI in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.