New York Islanders at Philadelphia Flyers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Islanders- Kyle PalmieriGoals1
- Casey CizikasAssists1
- Kyle PalmieriPoints1
FlyersScoring summary
- P39:53Kyle Palmieri Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Casey Cizikas (4), Adam Pelech (12)3–0
- P217:08Marc Gatcomb Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Kyle MacLean (4), Maxim Tsyplakov (13)2–0
- P210:02Simon Holmstrom Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Scott Perunovich (6), Jean-Gabriel Pageau (16)1–0
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P210:02Simon Holmstrom Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Scott Perunovich (6), Jean-Gabriel Pageau (16)NYI 1 – 0 PHI · NYI 55% → 74% +19NYI 55% → 74%+19 pts
- P217:08Marc Gatcomb Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Kyle MacLean (4), Maxim Tsyplakov (13)NYI 2 – 0 PHI · NYI 76% → 90% +14NYI 76% → 90%+14 pts
- P39:53Kyle Palmieri Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Casey Cizikas (4), Adam Pelech (12)NYI 3 – 0 PHI · NYI 97% → >99% +3NYI 97% → >99%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Islanders 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- NYI 57%
- ML NYI -145 / PHI +125
- Pre-line forecast
- NYI 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYI 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.7 pts
- NYI: Elo 53.4%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- NYI -133
- PHI +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYI 3.0 – 2.5 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYI | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1482 | 1465 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | PHI on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −2 | −13 | NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.04 more goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) · PHI: Ivan Fedotov: team allows 0.33 more goals than with its usual starter (≈13 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYI +23 Elo | NYI 53.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 50.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYI 50.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYI 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYI | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 322.8 | Goals scored | 3.016th of 32 |
| 13th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 3.430th of 32 |
| 17th of 32−0.2 | Margin | −0.526th of 32 |
| 13th of 3250.3% | Shot share | 50.7%12th of 32 |
| 10th of 3290.7% | Save percentage | 88.2%32nd of 32 |
| 1st of 328–2 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 32 |
| 19th of 3210–14 | Road vs home | 12–1218th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYI |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 23–26 | 26–26 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 6–20 | 6–9 |
| Underdog | 17–6 | 20–17 |
| Overs–unders | 25–24 | 27–25 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYI 3–2 PHI in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.