New Jersey Devils at Philadelphia Flyers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Devils- Dougie HamiltonGoals1
- Dougie HamiltonPoints1
Flyers- Garnet HathawayGoals1
- Rasmus RistolainenAssists2
- Rasmus RistolainenPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:45Scott Laughton Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Travis Konecny (37)2–4
- P318:38Timo Meier Goal (15) Slap Shot, assists: Jesper Bratt (40), Jack Hughes (39)2–3
- P218:47Dougie Hamilton Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–3
- P22:49Garnet Hathaway Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Cam York (8), Rasmus Ristolainen (13)0–3
- P111:32Joel Farabee Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Scott Laughton (15)0–2
- P111:04Bobby Brink Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: Rasmus Ristolainen (12), Travis Konecny (36)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P111:04Bobby Brink Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: Rasmus Ristolainen (12), Travis Konecny (36)NJ 0 – 1 PHI · PHI 44% → 60% +16PHI 44% → 60%+16 pts
- P111:32Joel Farabee Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Scott Laughton (15)NJ 0 – 2 PHI · PHI 60% → 74% +15PHI 60% → 74%+15 pts
- P22:49Garnet Hathaway Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Cam York (8), Rasmus Ristolainen (13)NJ 0 – 3 PHI · PHI 78% → 89% +11PHI 78% → 89%+11 pts
- P218:47Dougie Hamilton Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: noneNJ 1 – 3 PHI · NJ 4% → 13% +9NJ 4% → 13%+9 pts
- P318:38Timo Meier Goal (15) Slap Shot, assists: Jesper Bratt (40), Jack Hughes (39)NJ 2 – 3 PHI · NJ <1% → <1% +1NJ <1% → <1%+1 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Devils 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- NJ 57%
- ML NJ -145 / PHI +125
- Pre-line forecast
- NJ 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NJ 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.6 pts
- NJ: Elo 47.6%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- NJ -133
- PHI +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NJ 3.0 – 2.5 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NJ | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1466 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −21 | +7 | NJ: Jake Allen: team allows 0.52 more goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) · PHI: Samuel Ersson: team allows 0.18 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +17 Elo | PHI 52.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NJ 55.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NJ 54.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NJ 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NJ | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 3.016th of 32 |
| 5th of 322.5 | Goals allowed | 3.428th of 32 |
| 7th of 32+0.5 | Margin | −0.427th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3253.6% | Shot share | 50.9%11th of 32 |
| 7th of 3290.9% | Save percentage | 88.2%32nd of 32 |
| 21st of 324–6 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 32 |
| 8th of 3213–11 | Road vs home | 11–1222nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NJ |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 21–30 | 25–25 |
| Last 10 | 1–9 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 18–28 | 6–9 |
| Underdog | 3–2 | 19–16 |
| Overs–unders | 17–34 | 26–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NJ 2–3 PHI in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.