Philadelphia Flyers at New Jersey Devils, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flyers
Devils- Luke HughesGoals1
- Brett PesceAssists2
- Luke HughesPoints2
Scoring summary
- P31:58Jack Hughes Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Jesper Bratt (42), Brett Pesce (8)0–5
- P213:43Dawson Mercer Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Timo Meier (22), Brett Pesce (7)0–4
- P212:41Nathan Bastian Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Timo Meier (21), Luke Hughes (17)0–3
- P26:27Luke Hughes Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: none0–2
- P20:54Ondrej Palat Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Hughes (40), Jesper Bratt (41)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P20:54Ondrej Palat Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Hughes (40), Jesper Bratt (41)PHI 0 – 1 NJ · NJ 59% → 75% +16NJ 59% → 75%+16 pts
- P26:27Luke Hughes Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: nonePHI 0 – 2 NJ · NJ 76% → 88% +12NJ 76% → 88%+12 pts
- P212:41Nathan Bastian Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Timo Meier (21), Luke Hughes (17)PHI 0 – 3 NJ · NJ 90% → 97% +7NJ 90% → 97%+7 pts
- P213:43Dawson Mercer Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Timo Meier (22), Brett Pesce (7)PHI 0 – 4 NJ · NJ 97% → >99% +2NJ 97% → >99%+2 pts
- P31:58Jack Hughes Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Jesper Bratt (42), Brett Pesce (8)PHI 0 – 5 NJ · NJ >99% → >99% +0NJ >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Devils 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- NJ 61%
- ML PHI +150 / NJ -175
- Pre-line forecast
- NJ 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NJ 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.7 pts
- NJ: Elo 56.7%, market 61.4%
- Fair odds
- NJ -159
- PHI +159 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 2.4 – 3.1 NJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | NJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1470 | 1508 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +7 | −19 | PHI: Samuel Ersson: team allows 0.19 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) · NJ: Jake Allen: team allows 0.49 more goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NJ +47 Elo | NJ 56.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NJ 66.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NJ 64.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NJ 61.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PHI | Stat | NJ |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 3.113th of 32 |
| 28th of 323.4 | Goals allowed | 2.65th of 32 |
| 26th of 32−0.4 | Margin | +0.58th of 32 |
| 11th of 3250.7% | Shot share | 53.6%3rd of 32 |
| 32nd of 3288.4% | Save percentage | 90.8%6th of 32 |
| 9th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 32 |
| 21st of 3211–16 | Road vs home | 13–1218th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  NJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 26–25 | 21–31 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 1–9 |
| Favorite | 6–9 | 18–29 |
| Underdog | 20–16 | 3–2 |
| Overs–unders | 27–24 | 18–34 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 4–2 NJ in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.