Vegas Golden Knights at New York Islanders, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Golden Knights- Brandon SaadGoals1
- Nicolas HagueAssists1
- Brandon SaadPoints1
Islanders- Bo HorvatGoals1
- Tony DeAngeloAssists1
- Bo HorvatPoints1
Scoring summary
- P310:43Brock Nelson Goal (16) Tip-In, assists: Alexander Romanov (12), Anthony DeAngelo (3)1–2
- P37:40Brandon Saad Goal (8) Backhand, assists: Nicolas Hague (5), Nicolas Roy (12)1–1
- P118:21Bo Horvat Goal (19) Backhand, assists: Adam Pelech (14), Maxim Tsyplakov (16)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P118:21Bo Horvat Goal (19) Backhand, assists: Adam Pelech (14), Maxim Tsyplakov (16)VGK 0 – 1 NYI · NYI 44% → 61% +17NYI 44% → 61%+17 pts
- P37:40Brandon Saad Goal (8) Backhand, assists: Nicolas Hague (5), Nicolas Roy (12)VGK 1 – 1 NYI · VGK 23% → 53% +30VGK 23% → 53%+30 pts
- P310:43Brock Nelson Goal (16) Tip-In, assists: Alexander Romanov (12), Anthony DeAngelo (3)VGK 1 – 2 NYI · NYI 47% → 80% +33NYI 47% → 80%+33 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Golden Knights 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- VGK 57%
- ML VGK -145 / NYI +125
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.1 pts
- VGK: Elo 50.0%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- VGK -133
- NYI +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VGK 3.0 – 2.5 NYI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VGK | NYI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1527 | 1486 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −4 | +2 | VGK: Ilya Samsonov: team allows 0.11 more goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) · NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYI 0 Elo | NYI 50.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 54.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 53.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VGK 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VGK | Stat | NYI |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 2.824th of 32 |
| 10th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 2.913th of 32 |
| 8th of 32+0.5 | Margin | −0.117th of 32 |
| 5th of 3253.1% | Shot share | 50.5%12th of 32 |
| 19th of 3290.0% | Save percentage | 90.7%10th of 32 |
| 30th of 322–8 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 32 |
| 12th of 3212–13 | Road vs home | 12–1322nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  VGK |  NYI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 30–23 | 25–27 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 20–21 | 7–20 |
| Underdog | 10–2 | 18–7 |
| Overs–unders | 25–28 | 26–26 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VGK 2–1 NYI in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.