Vegas Golden Knights at New York Rangers, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Golden Knights- Keegan KolesarAssists1
- Keegan KolesarPoints1
Rangers- Artemi PanarinGoals1
- Artemi PanarinAssists2
- Artemi PanarinPoints3
Scoring summary
- P318:19Artemi Panarin Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Mika Zibanejad (23), J.T. Miller (28)2–4
- P311:33K'Andre Miller Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Mika Zibanejad (22), Artemi Panarin (34)2–3
- P35:04Mika Zibanejad Goal (10) Backhand, assists: J.T. Miller (27), Artemi Panarin (33)2–2
- P29:16Jack Eichel Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Keegan Kolesar (12), Shea Theodore (39)2–1
- P21:18Alexis Lafrenière Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Fox (38), Reilly Smith (16)1–1
- P119:41Jack Eichel Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Mark Stone (34), Pavel Dorofeyev (13)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P119:41Jack Eichel Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Mark Stone (34), Pavel Dorofeyev (13)VGK 1 – 0 NYR · VGK 56% → 72% +16VGK 56% → 72%+16 pts
- P21:18Alexis Lafrenière Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Fox (38), Reilly Smith (16)VGK 1 – 1 NYR · NYR 27% → 44% +17NYR 27% → 44%+17 pts
- P29:16Jack Eichel Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Keegan Kolesar (12), Shea Theodore (39)VGK 2 – 1 NYR · VGK 55% → 74% +19VGK 55% → 74%+19 pts
- P35:04Mika Zibanejad Goal (10) Backhand, assists: J.T. Miller (27), Artemi Panarin (33)VGK 2 – 2 NYR · NYR 21% → 46% +26NYR 21% → 46%+26 pts
- P311:33K'Andre Miller Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Mika Zibanejad (22), Artemi Panarin (34)VGK 2 – 3 NYR · NYR 47% → 82% +34NYR 47% → 82%+34 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Golden Knights 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- VGK 57%
- ML VGK -145 / NYR +125
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.0 pts
- VGK: Elo 53.1%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- VGK -133
- NYR +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VGK 3.5 – 3.0 NYR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VGK | NYR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1531 | 1514 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | NYR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +3 | −7 | VGK: Adin Hill: team allows 0.07 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) · NYR: Jonathan Quick: team allows 0.17 more goals than with its usual starter (≈27 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +22 Elo | VGK 53.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 56.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 55.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VGK 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VGK | Stat | NYR |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 3.015th of 32 |
| 9th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 3.120th of 32 |
| 5th of 32+0.6 | Margin | −0.117th of 32 |
| 5th of 3253.0% | Shot share | 49.3%20th of 32 |
| 18th of 3290.1% | Save percentage | 90.4%13th of 32 |
| 28th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 32 |
| 10th of 3212–12 | Road vs home | 12–1321st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  VGK |  NYR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 30–22 | 19–32 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 20–20 | 12–23 |
| Underdog | 10–2 | 7–9 |
| Overs–unders | 25–27 | 24–27 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VGK 2–1 NYR in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.