Columbus Blue Jackets at Vegas Golden Knights, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VGK; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jackets- Adam FantilliGoals1
- Dmitri VoronkovAssists1
- Cole SillingerPoints1
Golden Knights- Tomas HertlGoals1
- Pavel DorofeyevAssists1
- Tomas HertlPoints1
Scoring summary
- OT0:52Cole Sillinger Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Zach Werenski (39), Kent Johnson (18)2–1
- P118:34Adam Fantilli Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Dmitri Voronkov (16)1–1
- P14:58Tomas Hertl Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Pavel Dorofeyev (12), Nicolas Hague (4)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:58Tomas Hertl Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Pavel Dorofeyev (12), Nicolas Hague (4)CBJ 0 – 1 VGK · VGK 71% → 82% +12VGK 71% → 82%+12 pts
- P118:34Adam Fantilli Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Dmitri Voronkov (16)CBJ 1 – 1 VGK · CBJ 18% → 32% +14CBJ 18% → 32%+14 pts
- OT0:52Cole Sillinger Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Zach Werenski (39), Kent Johnson (18)CBJ 2 – 1 VGK · CBJ 44% → 89% +45CBJ 44% → 89%+45 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Golden Knights 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 76.2% of 172 graded games.
- Market
- VGK 72%
- ML CBJ +240 / VGK -290
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.6 pts
- VGK: Elo 61.1%, market 71.7%
- Fair odds
- VGK -253
- CBJ +253 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CBJ 2.6 – 3.9 VGK
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CBJ | VGK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1477 | 1534 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +8 | −5 | CBJ: Elvis Merzlikins: team allows 0.19 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) · VGK: Ilya Samsonov: team allows 0.14 more goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +78 Elo | VGK 61.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 72.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 70.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VGK 71.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CBJ | Stat | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 3.44th of 32 |
| 26th of 323.4 | Goals allowed | 2.810th of 32 |
| 15th of 320.0 | Margin | +0.66th of 32 |
| 14th of 3250.3% | Shot share | 53.1%5th of 32 |
| 31st of 3288.9% | Save percentage | 90.1%17th of 32 |
| 3rd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 3–728th of 32 |
| 29th of 327–18 | Road vs home | 19–85th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CBJ |  VGK |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 29–21 | 30–21 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 4–5 | 20–19 |
| Underdog | 25–16 | 10–2 |
| Overs–unders | 30–20 | 25–26 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CBJ 1–1 VGK in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.