New York Islanders at Winnipeg Jets, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WPG; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Islanders- Kyle PalmieriGoals1
- Jean-Gabriel PageauAssists1
- Kyle PalmieriPoints1
Jets- Gabriel VilardiGoals2
- Mark ScheifeleAssists2
- Gabriel VilardiPoints2
Scoring summary
- P311:07Kyle Palmieri Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Anders Lee (18), Alexander Romanov (13)3–4
- P218:18Gabriel Vilardi Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (32), Kyle Connor (39)2–4
- P214:50Nikolaj Ehlers Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Cole Perfetti (23), Vladislav Namestnikov (19)2–3
- P24:23Gabriel Vilardi Goal (23) Snap Shot, assists: Kyle Connor (38), Mark Scheifele (31)2–2
- P112:07Marc Gatcomb Goal (3) Backhand, assists: none2–1
- P14:27Alex Iafallo Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Samberg (9), Brad Lambert (1)1–1
- P11:05Simon Holmstrom Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau (17)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:05Simon Holmstrom Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau (17)NYI 1 – 0 WPG · NYI 37% → 52% +14NYI 37% → 52%+14 pts
- P14:27Alex Iafallo Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Samberg (9), Brad Lambert (1)NYI 1 – 1 WPG · WPG 48% → 63% +15WPG 48% → 63%+15 pts
- P112:07Marc Gatcomb Goal (3) Backhand, assists: noneNYI 2 – 1 WPG · NYI 38% → 54% +16NYI 38% → 54%+16 pts
- P24:23Gabriel Vilardi Goal (23) Snap Shot, assists: Kyle Connor (38), Mark Scheifele (31)NYI 2 – 2 WPG · WPG 41% → 60% +19WPG 41% → 60%+19 pts
- P214:50Nikolaj Ehlers Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Cole Perfetti (23), Vladislav Namestnikov (19)NYI 2 – 3 WPG · WPG 59% → 78% +20WPG 59% → 78%+20 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Jets 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- WPG 63%
- ML NYI +160 / WPG -190
- Pre-line forecast
- WPG 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WPG 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.2 pts
- WPG: Elo 68.2%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- WPG -170
- NYI +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYI 2.4 – 3.1 WPG
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYI | WPG | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1488 | 1577 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +3 | +12 | NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) · WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.29 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +133 Elo | WPG 68.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WPG 64.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WPG 65.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WPG 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYI | Stat | WPG |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 322.8 | Goals scored | 3.61st of 32 |
| 13th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 2.41st of 32 |
| 17th of 32−0.1 | Margin | +1.21st of 32 |
| 13th of 3250.1% | Shot share | 50.3%12th of 32 |
| 8th of 3290.9% | Save percentage | 92.2%1st of 32 |
| 1st of 328–2 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 32 |
| 16th of 3212–15 | Road vs home | 21–84th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYI |  WPG |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 26–27 | 32–23 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 7–20 | 22–17 |
| Underdog | 19–7 | 10–6 |
| Overs–unders | 26–27 | 27–28 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYI 1–1 WPG in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.