Winnipeg Jets at Washington Capitals, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jets- Dylan SambergGoals1
- Neal PionkAssists2
- Dylan SambergPoints2
Capitals- Tom WilsonGoals1
- Matt RoyAssists3
- Matt RoyPoints3
Scoring summary
- OT1:57Josh Morrissey Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (30), Kyle Connor (37)5–4
- P312:21Alex Ovechkin Goal (24) Slap Shot, assists: Tom Wilson (17), Matt Roy (13)4–4
- P37:26Tom Wilson Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Strome (35), Matt Roy (12)4–3
- P31:10Josh Morrissey Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (29)4–2
- P24:54Taylor Raddysh Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Matt Roy (11)3–2
- P24:03Alex Iafallo Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Neal Pionk (28), Dylan Samberg (8)3–1
- P21:12Pierre-Luc Dubois Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: John Carlson (28), Connor McMichael (21)2–1
- P112:41Dylan Samberg Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Cole Perfetti (21), Vladislav Namestnikov (17)2–0
- P19:13Cole Perfetti Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Vladislav Namestnikov (16), Neal Pionk (27)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P19:13Cole Perfetti Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Vladislav Namestnikov (16), Neal Pionk (27)WPG 1 – 0 WSH · WPG 50% → 65% +15WPG 50% → 65%+15 pts
- P31:10Josh Morrissey Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (29)WPG 4 – 2 WSH · WPG 74% → 90% +16WPG 74% → 90%+16 pts
- P37:26Tom Wilson Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Strome (35), Matt Roy (12)WPG 4 – 3 WSH · WSH 6% → 21% +16WSH 6% → 21%+16 pts
- P312:21Alex Ovechkin Goal (24) Slap Shot, assists: Tom Wilson (17), Matt Roy (13)WPG 4 – 4 WSH · WSH 15% → 50% +35WSH 15% → 50%+35 pts
- OT1:57Josh Morrissey Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (30), Kyle Connor (37)WPG 5 – 4 WSH · WPG 50% → 95% +45WPG 50% → 95%+45 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Capitals 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 50%
- ML WPG -110 / WSH -110
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.7 pts
- WSH: Elo 52.7%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- WSH -100
- WPG -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WPG 2.8 – 2.8 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WPG | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1571 | 1552 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +11 | +13 | WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.28 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · WSH: Logan Thompson: team allows 0.33 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +19 Elo | WSH 52.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 51.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 52.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WPG | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 323.6 | Goals scored | 3.53rd of 32 |
| 1st of 322.4 | Goals allowed | 2.42nd of 32 |
| 1st of 32+1.2 | Margin | +1.12nd of 32 |
| 14th of 3250.3% | Shot share | 49.8%18th of 32 |
| 1st of 3292.2% | Save percentage | 91.6%2nd of 32 |
| 1st of 328–2 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 32 |
| 3rd of 3216–9 | Road vs home | 16–87th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WPG |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 30–23 | 33–18 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 22–17 | 14–13 |
| Underdog | 8–6 | 19–5 |
| Overs–unders | 26–27 | 22–29 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 1–9 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WPG 1–1 WSH in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.