Carolina Hurricanes at Winnipeg Jets, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WPG; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hurricanes
Jets- Nino NiederreiterGoals1
- Nino NiederreiterAssists1
- Nino NiederreiterPoints2
Scoring summary
- P316:17Rasmus Kupari Goal (5) Poke, assists: Mason Appleton (10), David Gustafsson (4)0–3
- P23:13Neal Pionk Goal (8) Slap Shot, assists: Cole Perfetti (22), Nino Niederreiter (15)0–2
- P119:18Nino Niederreiter Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Alex Iafallo (11), Vladislav Namestnikov (18)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P119:18Nino Niederreiter Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Alex Iafallo (11), Vladislav Namestnikov (18)CAR 0 – 1 WPG · WPG 43% → 60% +18WPG 43% → 60%+18 pts
- P23:13Neal Pionk Goal (8) Slap Shot, assists: Cole Perfetti (22), Nino Niederreiter (15)CAR 0 – 2 WPG · WPG 61% → 78% +16WPG 61% → 78%+16 pts
- P316:17Rasmus Kupari Goal (5) Poke, assists: Mason Appleton (10), David Gustafsson (4)CAR 0 – 3 WPG · WPG >99% → >99% +0WPG >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hurricanes 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- CAR 59%
- ML CAR -155 / WPG +135
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −12.4 pts
- CAR: Elo 46.4%, market 58.8%
- Fair odds
- CAR -143
- WPG +143 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CAR 3.0 – 2.5 WPG
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CAR | WPG | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1556 | 1573 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | −27 | CAR: Pyotr Kochetkov: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) · WPG: Eric Comrie: team allows 0.66 more goals than with its usual starter (≈18 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +25 Elo | WPG 53.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 53.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 52.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 58.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CAR | Stat | WPG |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 3.61st of 32 |
| 8th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 2.41st of 32 |
| 5th of 32+0.6 | Margin | +1.21st of 32 |
| 1st of 3256.0% | Shot share | 50.3%13th of 32 |
| 24th of 3289.7% | Save percentage | 92.1%1st of 32 |
| 7th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 32 |
| 14th of 3212–14 | Road vs home | 20–84th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CAR |  WPG |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 25–28 | 31–23 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 22–26 | 22–17 |
| Underdog | 3–2 | 9–6 |
| Overs–unders | 22–31 | 27–27 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CAR 0–2 WPG in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.