Los Angeles Kings at Carolina Hurricanes, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Kevin FialaGoals2
- Quinton ByfieldAssists2
- Kevin FialaPoints2
Hurricanes- Eric RobinsonGoals1
- Brent BurnsAssists1
- Eric RobinsonPoints1
Scoring summary
- P311:40Kevin Fiala Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Quinton Byfield (14)4–2
- P35:44Eric Robinson Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Brent Burns (15), Jaccob Slavin (16)3–2
- P216:58Kevin Fiala Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Quinton Byfield (13), Drew Doughty (1)3–1
- P21:03Trevor Moore Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Phillip Danault (20), Vladislav Gavrikov (15)2–1
- P117:57Phillip Danault Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: none1–1
- P115:22Jesperi Kotkaniemi Goal (11) Tip-In, assists: Sean Walker (9), Shayne Gostisbehere (23)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P115:22Jesperi Kotkaniemi Goal (11) Tip-In, assists: Sean Walker (9), Shayne Gostisbehere (23)LA 0 – 1 CAR · CAR 56% → 72% +16CAR 56% → 72%+16 pts
- P117:57Phillip Danault Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: noneLA 1 – 1 CAR · LA 28% → 44% +16LA 28% → 44%+16 pts
- P21:03Trevor Moore Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Phillip Danault (20), Vladislav Gavrikov (15)LA 2 – 1 CAR · LA 44% → 62% +18LA 44% → 62%+18 pts
- P216:58Kevin Fiala Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Quinton Byfield (13), Drew Doughty (1)LA 3 – 1 CAR · LA 68% → 86% +17LA 68% → 86%+17 pts
- P35:44Eric Robinson Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Brent Burns (15), Jaccob Slavin (16)LA 3 – 2 CAR · CAR 8% → 26% +18CAR 8% → 26%+18 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hurricanes 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- CAR 57%
- ML LA +125 / CAR -150
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.4 pts
- CAR: Elo 62.9%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- CAR -135
- LA +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LA 2.5 – 3.0 CAR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LA | CAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1515 | 1561 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −2 | +8 | LA: Darcy Kuemper: team allows 0.04 more goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) · CAR: Frederik Andersen: team allows 0.20 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈24 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +92 Elo | CAR 62.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 59.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 60.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| LA | Stat | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 322.8 | Goals scored | 3.35th of 32 |
| 5th of 322.6 | Goals allowed | 2.77th of 32 |
| 10th of 32+0.2 | Margin | +0.65th of 32 |
| 8th of 3251.8% | Shot share | 56.0%1st of 32 |
| 10th of 3290.7% | Save percentage | 89.8%23rd of 32 |
| 30th of 322–8 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 32 |
| 26th of 3211–19 | Road vs home | 20–62nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LA |  CAR |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 22–27 | 25–27 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 9–19 | 22–25 |
| Underdog | 13–8 | 3–2 |
| Overs–unders | 18–31 | 21–31 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LA 1–1 CAR in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.