Carolina Hurricanes at Minnesota Wild, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hurricanes- Andrei SvechnikovAssists1
- Andrei SvechnikovPoints1
Wild- Vinnie HinostrozaGoals1
- Zach BogosianAssists1
- Vinnie HinostrozaPoints1
Scoring summary
- P317:12Sebastian Aho Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Seth Jarvis (21), Andrei Svechnikov (21)1–2
- P30:49Vincent Hinostroza Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Jared Spurgeon (12), Jonas Brodin (13)0–2
- P12:55Yakov Trenin Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Marat Khusnutdinov (4), Zach Bogosian (8)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:55Yakov Trenin Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Marat Khusnutdinov (4), Zach Bogosian (8)CAR 0 – 1 MIN · MIN 38% → 53% +15MIN 38% → 53%+15 pts
- P30:49Vincent Hinostroza Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Jared Spurgeon (12), Jonas Brodin (13)CAR 0 – 2 MIN · MIN 68% → 87% +19MIN 68% → 87%+19 pts
- P317:12Sebastian Aho Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Seth Jarvis (21), Andrei Svechnikov (21)CAR 1 – 2 MIN · CAR <1% → 5% +5CAR <1% → 5%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hurricanes 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- CAR 62%
- ML CAR -185 / MIN +155
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.8 pts
- CAR: Elo 51.5%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- CAR -166
- MIN +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CAR 3.1 – 2.4 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CAR | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1552 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +5 | +3 | CAR: Frederik Andersen: team allows 0.12 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈25 weighted starts) · MIN: Filip Gustavsson: team allows 0.07 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +11 Elo | CAR 51.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 57.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 56.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CAR 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CAR | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 2.919th of 32 |
| 8th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 2.912th of 32 |
| 8th of 32+0.5 | Margin | 0.014th of 32 |
| 1st of 3255.8% | Shot share | 48.1%26th of 32 |
| 24th of 3289.7% | Save percentage | 91.0%6th of 32 |
| 5th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 32 |
| 16th of 3212–15 | Road vs home | 11–1326th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CAR |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 25–29 | 27–27 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 22–27 | 14–16 |
| Underdog | 3–2 | 13–11 |
| Overs–unders | 22–32 | 25–29 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CAR 1–2 MIN in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 3.