Tampa Bay Lightning at Detroit Red Wings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lightning- Erik CernakGoals1
- Nikita KucherovAssists3
- Erik CernakPoints3
Red Wings- Alex DeBrincatGoals1
- Alex DeBrincatAssists2
- Alex DeBrincatPoints3
Scoring summary
- P317:57Brandon Hagel Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (57), Ryan McDonagh (16)6–3
- P34:10Dylan Duke Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Mitchell Chaffee (5), Nick Perbix (10)5–3
- P214:29Alex DeBrincat Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: none4–3
- P116:54Patrick Kane Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Alex DeBrincat (22), Lucas Raymond (38)4–2
- P115:13Nick Paul Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Brandon Hagel (34), Erik Cernak (13)4–1
- P111:49Brayden Point Goal (30) Wrist Shot, assists: Gage Goncalves (5), Brandon Hagel (33)3–1
- P19:47Vladimir Tarasenko Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Moritz Seider (29), Alex DeBrincat (21)2–1
- P12:56Erik Cernak Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (56), Ryan McDonagh (15)2–0
- P11:28Brandon Hagel Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (55), Erik Cernak (12)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:28Brandon Hagel Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (55), Erik Cernak (12)TB 1 – 0 DET · TB 61% → 74% +13TB 61% → 74%+13 pts
- P19:47Vladimir Tarasenko Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Moritz Seider (29), Alex DeBrincat (21)TB 2 – 1 DET · DET 15% → 26% +11DET 15% → 26%+11 pts
- P111:49Brayden Point Goal (30) Wrist Shot, assists: Gage Goncalves (5), Brandon Hagel (33)TB 3 – 1 DET · TB 74% → 85% +11TB 74% → 85%+11 pts
- P214:29Alex DeBrincat Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: noneTB 4 – 3 DET · DET 10% → 23% +13DET 10% → 23%+13 pts
- P34:10Dylan Duke Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Mitchell Chaffee (5), Nick Perbix (10)TB 5 – 3 DET · TB 80% → 94% +14TB 80% → 94%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lightning 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- TB 61%
- ML TB -170 / DET +145
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.9 pts
- TB: Elo 49.7%, market 60.7%
- Fair odds
- TB -154
- DET +154 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.6 – 2.9 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1533 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +9 | +1 | TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.22 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) · DET: Alex Lyon: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +2 Elo | DET 50.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 55.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 54.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 60.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TB | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 323.5 | Goals scored | 2.917th of 32 |
| 10th of 322.8 | Goals allowed | 3.119th of 32 |
| 3rd of 32+0.7 | Margin | −0.118th of 32 |
| 10th of 3250.8% | Shot share | 47.3%28th of 32 |
| 4th of 3291.2% | Save percentage | 90.2%16th of 32 |
| 12th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 32 |
| 20th of 3211–15 | Road vs home | 15–1316th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 26–27 | 35–19 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 17–20 | 5–8 |
| Underdog | 9–7 | 30–11 |
| Overs–unders | 23–30 | 26–28 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 1–4 DET in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.