Ottawa Senators at Tampa Bay Lightning, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Senators- Claude GirouxGoals1
- Thomas ChabotAssists2
- Thomas ChabotPoints2
Lightning- Ryan McDonaghGoals1
- Nick PerbixAssists1
- Ryan McDonaghPoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:40Drake Batherson Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Sanderson (30), Thomas Chabot (22)3–4
- P318:25Ryan McDonagh Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Victor Hedman (35), Anthony Cirelli (21)2–4
- P31:56Brandon Hagel Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–3
- P29:30Claude Giroux Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Thomas Chabot (21), Tim Stützle (37)2–2
- P27:38Nikita Kucherov Goal (25) Slap Shot, assists: Victor Hedman (34)1–2
- P21:44Luke Glendening Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Emil Lilleberg (12), Nick Perbix (9)1–1
- P114:09Michael Amadio Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Ridly Greig (9), David Perron (3)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P114:09Michael Amadio Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Ridly Greig (9), David Perron (3)OTT 1 – 0 TB · OTT 39% → 56% +17OTT 39% → 56%+17 pts
- P21:44Luke Glendening Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Emil Lilleberg (12), Nick Perbix (9)OTT 1 – 1 TB · TB 42% → 60% +18TB 42% → 60%+18 pts
- P27:38Nikita Kucherov Goal (25) Slap Shot, assists: Victor Hedman (34)OTT 1 – 2 TB · TB 59% → 77% +18TB 59% → 77%+18 pts
- P29:30Claude Giroux Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Thomas Chabot (21), Tim Stützle (37)OTT 2 – 2 TB · OTT 23% → 41% +18OTT 23% → 41%+18 pts
- P31:56Brandon Hagel Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: noneOTT 2 – 3 TB · TB 57% → 80% +23TB 57% → 80%+23 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lightning 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- TB 62%
- ML OTT +155 / TB -185
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.4 pts
- TB: Elo 60.9%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- TB -166
- OTT +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OTT 2.4 – 3.1 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OTT | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1527 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | OTT on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +13 | +9 | OTT: Linus Ullmark: team allows 0.32 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) · TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.23 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +77 Elo | TB 60.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 62.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 62.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| OTT | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 322.9 | Goals scored | 3.53rd of 32 |
| 6th of 322.7 | Goals allowed | 2.89th of 32 |
| 12th of 32+0.2 | Margin | +0.74th of 32 |
| 8th of 3252.2% | Shot share | 50.7%11th of 32 |
| 11th of 3290.7% | Save percentage | 91.1%4th of 32 |
| 2nd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 32 |
| 14th of 3213–15 | Road vs home | 16–97th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OTT |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 23–30 | 25–26 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 8–21 | 16–19 |
| Underdog | 15–9 | 9–7 |
| Overs–unders | 20–33 | 21–30 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OTT 4–1 TB in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 5.