Ottawa Senators at Nashville Predators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Senators- Adam GaudetteGoals1
- Artem ZubAssists2
- David PerronPoints2
Predators- Jonathan MarchessaultGoals1
- Ryan O'ReillyAssists1
- Jonathan MarchessaultPoints1
Scoring summary
- P317:09Ridly Greig Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Brady Tkachuk (23), Claude Giroux (26)5–2
- P314:06David Perron Goal (1) Deflected, assists: Brady Tkachuk (22), Artem Zub (6)4–2
- P36:17Shane Pinto Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Adam Gaudette (6), Thomas Chabot (20)3–2
- P30:47Jonathan Marchessault Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan O'Reilly (16), Filip Forsberg (32)2–2
- P213:04Jake Sanderson Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Highmore (3), Artem Zub (5)2–1
- P210:00Adam Gaudette Goal (16) Batted, assists: Tim Stützle (36), David Perron (2)1–1
- P23:59Filip Forsberg Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Roman Josi (27), Vinnie Hinostroza (2)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P23:59Filip Forsberg Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Roman Josi (27), Vinnie Hinostroza (2)OTT 0 – 1 NSH · NSH 54% → 72% +18NSH 54% → 72%+18 pts
- P210:00Adam Gaudette Goal (16) Batted, assists: Tim Stützle (36), David Perron (2)OTT 1 – 1 NSH · OTT 27% → 46% +19OTT 27% → 46%+19 pts
- P213:04Jake Sanderson Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Highmore (3), Artem Zub (5)OTT 2 – 1 NSH · OTT 46% → 68% +21OTT 46% → 68%+21 pts
- P30:47Jonathan Marchessault Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan O'Reilly (16), Filip Forsberg (32)OTT 2 – 2 NSH · NSH 28% → 53% +25NSH 28% → 53%+25 pts
- P36:17Shane Pinto Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Adam Gaudette (6), Thomas Chabot (20)OTT 3 – 2 NSH · OTT 47% → 76% +28OTT 47% → 76%+28 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Predators 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- NSH 55%
- ML OTT +115 / NSH -135
- Pre-line forecast
- NSH 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NSH 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.2 pts
- NSH: Elo 52.0%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- NSH -124
- OTT +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OTT 2.6 – 2.9 NSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OTT | NSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1480 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −10 | −3 | OTT: Anton Forsberg: team allows 0.25 more goals than with its usual starter (≈30 weighted starts) · NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.08 more goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NSH +14 Elo | NSH 52.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NSH 58.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NSH 57.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NSH 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| OTT | Stat | NSH |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 322.8 | Goals scored | 2.629th of 32 |
| 6th of 322.7 | Goals allowed | 3.224th of 32 |
| 13th of 32+0.2 | Margin | −0.629th of 32 |
| 8th of 3252.0% | Shot share | 50.9%10th of 32 |
| 11th of 3290.7% | Save percentage | 90.0%21st of 32 |
| 2nd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 32 |
| 17th of 3212–15 | Road vs home | 12–1218th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OTT |  NSH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 22–30 | 20–31 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 8–21 | 8–23 |
| Underdog | 14–9 | 12–8 |
| Overs–unders | 19–33 | 21–30 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OTT 2–1 NSH in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.