Nashville Predators at Buffalo Sabres, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BUF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Predators- Brady SkjeiGoals1
- Brady SkjeiAssists1
- Brady SkjeiPoints2
Sabres- Jiri KulichGoals2
- Tage ThompsonAssists1
- Jiri KulichPoints2
Scoring summary
- P317:56Jiri Kulich Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Tage Thompson (20), JJ Peterka (26)3–4
- P212:26Jason Zucker Goal (17) Tip-In, assists: Alex Tuch (20)3–3
- P22:51Tommy Novak Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Brady Skjei (14), Fedor Svechkov (3)3–2
- P117:06Brady Skjei Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Colton Sissons (8), Michael McCarron (5)2–2
- P110:56Luke Evangelista Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Justin Barron (3), Ryan O'Reilly (15)1–2
- P18:41Jiri Kulich Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Rasmus Dahlin (31), Owen Power (21)0–2
- P12:25Ryan McLeod Goal (11) Poke, assists: Rasmus Dahlin (30), Jack Quinn (11)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:25Ryan McLeod Goal (11) Poke, assists: Rasmus Dahlin (30), Jack Quinn (11)NSH 0 – 1 BUF · BUF 47% → 62% +15BUF 47% → 62%+15 pts
- P117:06Brady Skjei Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Colton Sissons (8), Michael McCarron (5)NSH 2 – 2 BUF · NSH 36% → 53% +17NSH 36% → 53%+17 pts
- P22:51Tommy Novak Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Brady Skjei (14), Fedor Svechkov (3)NSH 3 – 2 BUF · NSH 53% → 70% +18NSH 53% → 70%+18 pts
- P212:26Jason Zucker Goal (17) Tip-In, assists: Alex Tuch (20)NSH 3 – 3 BUF · BUF 28% → 48% +20BUF 28% → 48%+20 pts
- P317:56Jiri Kulich Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Tage Thompson (20), JJ Peterka (26)NSH 3 – 4 BUF · BUF 49% → 97% +48BUF 49% → 97%+48 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Predators 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- NSH 53%
- ML NSH -125 / BUF +105
- Pre-line forecast
- NSH 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NSH 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.0 pts
- NSH: Elo 46.3%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- NSH -114
- BUF +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NSH 3.3 – 3.2 BUF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NSH | BUF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1486 | 1473 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −2 | +2 | NSH: Justus Annunen: team allows 0.04 more goals than with its usual starter (≈22 weighted starts) · BUF: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +26 Elo | BUF 53.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NSH 53.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NSH 52.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NSH 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NSH | Stat | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 322.7 | Goals scored | 3.111th of 32 |
| 23rd of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 3.430th of 32 |
| 27th of 32−0.5 | Margin | −0.324th of 32 |
| 10th of 3251.0% | Shot share | 48.7%23rd of 32 |
| 21st of 3290.0% | Save percentage | 89.4%26th of 32 |
| 8th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 32 |
| 30th of 326–19 | Road vs home | 10–1428th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NSH |  BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 20–29 | 25–25 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 8–21 | 5–12 |
| Underdog | 12–8 | 20–13 |
| Overs–unders | 20–29 | 29–21 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NSH 2–0 BUF in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.