Nashville Predators at Pittsburgh Penguins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PIT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Predators
Penguins- Bryan RustGoals1
- Kris LetangAssists1
- Bryan RustPoints1
Scoring summary
- P317:59Bryan Rust Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Rickard Rakell (22), Sidney Crosby (40)0–3
- P210:43Sidney Crosby Goal (17) Slap Shot, assists: Rickard Rakell (21), Erik Karlsson (30)0–2
- P110:00Philip Tomasino Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: Erik Karlsson (29), Kris Letang (13)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P110:00Philip Tomasino Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: Erik Karlsson (29), Kris Letang (13)NSH 0 – 1 PIT · PIT 46% → 62% +16PIT 46% → 62%+16 pts
- P210:43Sidney Crosby Goal (17) Slap Shot, assists: Rickard Rakell (21), Erik Karlsson (30)NSH 0 – 2 PIT · PIT 67% → 83% +16PIT 67% → 83%+16 pts
- P317:59Bryan Rust Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Rickard Rakell (22), Sidney Crosby (40)NSH 0 – 3 PIT · PIT >99% → >99% +0PIT >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Predators 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- NSH 54%
- ML NSH -130 / PIT +110
- Pre-line forecast
- NSH 47%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NSH 42%
- Ratings vs. market
- −12.1 pts
- NSH: Elo 42.2%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- NSH -119
- PIT +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NSH 3.4 – 3.1 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NSH | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1484 | 1465 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | NSH on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −4 | +5 | NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.09 more goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · PIT: Alex Nedeljkovic: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +55 Elo | PIT 57.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 51.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 53.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NSH 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NSH | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 322.7 | Goals scored | 2.918th of 32 |
| 24th of 323.2 | Goals allowed | 3.631st of 32 |
| 28th of 32−0.5 | Margin | −0.730th of 32 |
| 10th of 3251.1% | Shot share | 48.0%27th of 32 |
| 21st of 3289.9% | Save percentage | 89.2%28th of 32 |
| 13th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 32 |
| 30th of 326–20 | Road vs home | 12–1320th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NSH |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 20–30 | 25–28 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 8–22 | 4–9 |
| Underdog | 12–8 | 21–19 |
| Overs–unders | 21–29 | 29–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NSH 1–2 PIT in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.