Ottawa Senators at Tampa Bay Lightning, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Senators- Michael AmadioGoals1
- Thomas ChabotAssists1
- Michael AmadioPoints1
Lightning- Erik CernakGoals1
- Nikita KucherovAssists2
- Nikita KucherovPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:34Mitchell Chaffee Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Luke Glendening (3), Darren Raddysh (20)1–5
- P319:08Erik Cernak Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Brayden Point (27)1–4
- P315:44Brayden Point Goal (29) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (54), Gage Goncalves (4)1–3
- P210:14Brandon Hagel Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan McDonagh (14), Andrei Vasilevskiy (2)1–2
- P25:27Michael Amadio Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Tim Stützle (38), Thomas Chabot (23)1–1
- P19:23Jake Guentzel Goal (27) Wrist Shot, assists: Brayden Point (26), Nikita Kucherov (53)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P19:23Jake Guentzel Goal (27) Wrist Shot, assists: Brayden Point (26), Nikita Kucherov (53)OTT 0 – 1 TB · TB 59% → 73% +14TB 59% → 73%+14 pts
- P25:27Michael Amadio Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Tim Stützle (38), Thomas Chabot (23)OTT 1 – 1 TB · OTT 25% → 42% +17OTT 25% → 42%+17 pts
- P210:14Brandon Hagel Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan McDonagh (14), Andrei Vasilevskiy (2)OTT 1 – 2 TB · TB 57% → 76% +19TB 57% → 76%+19 pts
- P315:44Brayden Point Goal (29) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (54), Gage Goncalves (4)OTT 1 – 3 TB · TB 92% → >99% +7TB 92% → >99%+7 pts
- P319:08Erik Cernak Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Brayden Point (27)OTT 1 – 4 TB · TB >99% → 100% +0TB >99% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lightning 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- TB 60%
- ML OTT +140 / TB -165
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.2 pts
- TB: Elo 60.1%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- TB -149
- OTT +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OTT 2.5 – 3.0 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OTT | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1529 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −9 | +8 | OTT: Anton Forsberg: team allows 0.22 more goals than with its usual starter (≈30 weighted starts) · TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.20 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +71 Elo | TB 60.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 58.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 59.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| OTT | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 322.9 | Goals scored | 3.53rd of 32 |
| 6th of 322.7 | Goals allowed | 2.810th of 32 |
| 12th of 32+0.2 | Margin | +0.74th of 32 |
| 8th of 3252.0% | Shot share | 50.8%10th of 32 |
| 10th of 3290.7% | Save percentage | 91.1%4th of 32 |
| 3rd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 32 |
| 16th of 3213–16 | Road vs home | 17–97th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OTT |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 24–30 | 25–27 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 8–21 | 16–20 |
| Underdog | 16–9 | 9–7 |
| Overs–unders | 21–33 | 22–30 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OTT 4–2 TB in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.