Chicago Blackhawks at Utah Hockey Club, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTAH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blackhawks- Ryan DonatoAssists1
- Ryan DonatoPoints1
Utah HC- Lawson CrouseGoals1
- Michael KesselringAssists1
- Lawson CrousePoints1
Scoring summary
- P312:12Lawson Crouse Goal (9) Backhand, assists: Josh Doan (6), Olli Määttä (11)1–2
- P219:16Clayton Keller Goal (21) Snap Shot, assists: Michael Kesselring (17), Logan Cooley (29)1–1
- P113:34Seth Jones Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Donato (20), Teuvo Teravainen (29)1–0
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P113:34Seth Jones Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Donato (20), Teuvo Teravainen (29)CHI 1 – 0 UTAH · CHI 31% → 46% +16CHI 31% → 46%+16 pts
- P219:16Clayton Keller Goal (21) Snap Shot, assists: Michael Kesselring (17), Logan Cooley (29)CHI 1 – 1 UTAH · UTAH 39% → 63% +24UTAH 39% → 63%+24 pts
- P312:12Lawson Crouse Goal (9) Backhand, assists: Josh Doan (6), Olli Määttä (11)CHI 1 – 2 UTAH · UTAH 58% → 89% +31UTAH 58% → 89%+31 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Utah HC 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 76.2% of 172 graded games.
- Market
- UTAH 72%
- ML CHI +240 / UTAH -290
- Pre-line forecast
- UTAH 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- UTAH 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.8 pts
- UTAH: Elo 67.8%, market 71.7%
- Fair odds
- UTAH -253
- CHI +253 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 2.6 – 3.9 UTAH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | UTAH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1399 | 1484 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −6 | +3 | CHI: Arvid Soderblom: team allows 0.15 more goals than with its usual starter (≈32 weighted starts) · UTAH: Karel Vejmelka: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈24 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | UTAH +130 Elo | UTAH 67.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | UTAH 71.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | UTAH 71.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | UTAH 71.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CHI | Stat | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 322.7 | Goals scored | 2.823rd of 32 |
| 30th of 323.5 | Goals allowed | 3.019th of 32 |
| 31st of 32−0.9 | Margin | −0.220th of 32 |
| 32nd of 3244.0% | Shot share | 49.9%17th of 32 |
| 19th of 3289.8% | Save percentage | 90.1%15th of 32 |
| 30th of 322–8 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 32 |
| 30th of 326–22 | Road vs home | 10–1831st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 30–27 | 26–32 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 1–9 |
| Favorite | 1–3 | 6–19 |
| Underdog | 29–24 | 20–13 |
| Overs–unders | 30–27 | 25–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 0–1 UTAH in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.