Edmonton Oilers at Chicago Blackhawks, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Oilers- Jeff SkinnerGoals1
- Jeff SkinnerAssists1
- Jeff SkinnerPoints2
Blackhawks- Ryan DonatoGoals1
- Ryan DonatoAssists1
- Ryan DonatoPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT1:36Zach Hyman Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (49), Evan Bouchard (34)4–3
- P316:16Alec Martinez Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Donato (16)3–3
- P312:12Ryan Donato Goal (16) Tip-In, assists: Teuvo Teravainen (25), Connor Bedard (31)3–2
- P38:18Leon Draisaitl Goal (38) Wrist Shot, assists: Jeff Skinner (9)3–1
- P31:11Jeff Skinner Goal (10) Backhand, assists: Leon Draisaitl (43), Vasily Podkolzin (14)2–1
- P219:54Lukas Reichel Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Teuvo Teravainen (24), Ilya Mikheyev (7)1–1
- P28:51Viktor Arvidsson Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Mattias Janmark (14), Brett Kulak (13)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P28:51Viktor Arvidsson Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Mattias Janmark (14), Brett Kulak (13)EDM 1 – 0 CHI · EDM 67% → 83% +16EDM 67% → 83%+16 pts
- P219:54Lukas Reichel Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Teuvo Teravainen (24), Ilya Mikheyev (7)EDM 1 – 1 CHI · CHI 16% → 37% +20CHI 16% → 37%+20 pts
- P31:11Jeff Skinner Goal (10) Backhand, assists: Leon Draisaitl (43), Vasily Podkolzin (14)EDM 2 – 1 CHI · EDM 63% → 84% +21EDM 63% → 84%+21 pts
- P316:16Alec Martinez Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Donato (16)EDM 3 – 3 CHI · CHI 5% → 44% +39CHI 5% → 44%+39 pts
- OT1:36Zach Hyman Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (49), Evan Bouchard (34)EDM 4 – 3 CHI · EDM 56% → 95% +40EDM 56% → 95%+40 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Oilers 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 76.2% of 172 graded games.
- Market
- EDM 72%
- ML EDM -300 / CHI +250
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.5 pts
- EDM: Elo 64.9%, market 72.4%
- Fair odds
- EDM -263
- CHI +263 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- EDM 3.9 – 2.6 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | EDM | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1571 | 1403 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | EDM on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +2 | −2 | EDM: Calvin Pickard: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈26 weighted starts) · CHI: Arvid Soderblom: team allows 0.05 more goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +107 Elo | EDM 64.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 68.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 67.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | EDM 72.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| EDM | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 2.631st of 32 |
| 7th of 322.7 | Goals allowed | 3.430th of 32 |
| 5th of 32+0.6 | Margin | −0.831st of 32 |
| 2nd of 3255.1% | Shot share | 43.8%32nd of 32 |
| 16th of 3290.2% | Save percentage | 90.0%19th of 32 |
| 6th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 2–830th of 32 |
| 4th of 3215–9 | Road vs home | 10–1629th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  EDM |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 20–33 | 27–25 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 16–32 | 1–3 |
| Underdog | 4–1 | 26–22 |
| Overs–unders | 22–31 | 26–26 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
EDM 4–1 CHI in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.