Edmonton Oilers at St. Louis Blues, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors STL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Oilers- Leon DraisaitlGoals1
- Evan BouchardAssists2
- Leon DraisaitlPoints2
Blues- Jordan KyrouGoals1
- Pavel BuchnevichAssists1
- Jordan KyrouPoints1
Scoring summary
- OT2:33Connor Brown Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (48), Evan Bouchard (33)3–2
- P317:46Leon Draisaitl Goal (37) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (47), Mattias Ekholm (16)2–2
- P38:58Colton Parayko Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Robert Thomas (26), Pavel Buchnevich (22)1–2
- P35:12Jordan Kyrou Goal (23) Backhand, assists: Brayden Schenn (19), Dylan Holloway (23)1–1
- P25:50Connor McDavid Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Evan Bouchard (32), Leon Draisaitl (42)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P25:50Connor McDavid Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Evan Bouchard (32), Leon Draisaitl (42)EDM 1 – 0 STL · EDM 60% → 77% +17EDM 60% → 77%+17 pts
- P35:12Jordan Kyrou Goal (23) Backhand, assists: Brayden Schenn (19), Dylan Holloway (23)EDM 1 – 1 STL · STL 18% → 43% +25STL 18% → 43%+25 pts
- P38:58Colton Parayko Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Robert Thomas (26), Pavel Buchnevich (22)EDM 1 – 2 STL · STL 44% → 76% +32STL 44% → 76%+32 pts
- P317:46Leon Draisaitl Goal (37) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (47), Mattias Ekholm (16)EDM 2 – 2 STL · EDM 3% → 53% +49EDM 3% → 53%+49 pts
- OT2:33Connor Brown Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (48), Evan Bouchard (33)EDM 3 – 2 STL · EDM 53% → 97% +44EDM 53% → 97%+44 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Oilers 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- EDM 63%
- ML EDM -190 / STL +160
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.9 pts
- EDM: Elo 57.1%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- EDM -170
- STL +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- EDM 3.6 – 2.9 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | EDM | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1569 | 1482 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | +1 | EDM: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) · STL: Jordan Binnington: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +50 Elo | EDM 57.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 56.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 56.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | EDM 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| EDM | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 2.727th of 32 |
| 7th of 322.7 | Goals allowed | 3.017th of 32 |
| 7th of 32+0.6 | Margin | −0.323rd of 32 |
| 2nd of 3255.0% | Shot share | 48.5%24th of 32 |
| 17th of 3290.2% | Save percentage | 90.0%19th of 32 |
| 7th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 32 |
| 4th of 3214–9 | Road vs home | 11–1428th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  EDM |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 20–32 | 28–25 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 16–31 | 4–9 |
| Underdog | 4–1 | 24–16 |
| Overs–unders | 22–30 | 23–30 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
EDM 2–2 STL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.