St. Louis Blues at Utah Hockey Club, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTAH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blues- Jordan KyrouGoals1
- Radek FaksaAssists1
- Jordan KyrouPoints1
Utah HC- Michael KesselringGoals1
- Nick BjugstadAssists1
- Michael KesselringPoints1
Scoring summary
- P37:13Jordan Kyrou Goal (22) Slap Shot, assists: Robert Thomas (25), Pavel Buchnevich (21)2–1
- P33:27Michael Kesselring Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: Nick Bjugstad (9), Kevin Stenlund (6)1–1
- P117:41Alexandre Texier Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Radek Faksa (7), Alexey Toropchenko (7)1–0
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P117:41Alexandre Texier Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Radek Faksa (7), Alexey Toropchenko (7)STL 1 – 0 UTAH · STL 48% → 65% +17STL 48% → 65%+17 pts
- P33:27Michael Kesselring Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: Nick Bjugstad (9), Kevin Stenlund (6)STL 1 – 1 UTAH · UTAH 25% → 51% +26UTAH 25% → 51%+26 pts
- P37:13Jordan Kyrou Goal (22) Slap Shot, assists: Robert Thomas (25), Pavel Buchnevich (21)STL 2 – 1 UTAH · STL 49% → 78% +29STL 49% → 78%+29 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Utah HC 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- UTAH 52%
- ML STL +100 / UTAH -120
- Pre-line forecast
- UTAH 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- UTAH 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.9 pts
- UTAH: Elo 54.1%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- UTAH -109
- STL +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 2.7 – 2.8 UTAH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | UTAH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1480 | 1483 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | −10 | STL: Jordan Binnington: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) · UTAH: Connor Ingram: team allows 0.26 more goals than with its usual starter (≈15 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | UTAH +29 Elo | UTAH 54.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | UTAH 53.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | UTAH 53.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | UTAH 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| STL | Stat | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 322.7 | Goals scored | 2.823rd of 32 |
| 18th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.016th of 32 |
| 24th of 32−0.3 | Margin | −0.219th of 32 |
| 24th of 3248.4% | Shot share | 49.4%19th of 32 |
| 21st of 3289.9% | Save percentage | 90.2%15th of 32 |
| 20th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 3–728th of 32 |
| 16th of 3212–15 | Road vs home | 8–1732nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 27–25 | 25–26 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 4–9 | 6–15 |
| Underdog | 23–16 | 19–11 |
| Overs–unders | 23–29 | 22–29 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 0–2 UTAH in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.