Columbus Blue Jackets at Utah Hockey Club, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTAH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jackets- Kent JohnsonGoals1
- James van RiemsdykAssists1
- Kirill MarchenkoPoints1
Utah HC- Alexander KerfootGoals1
- Clayton KellerAssists2
- Clayton KellerPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT1:01Zach Werenski Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Cole Sillinger (17)3–2
- P311:42Kent Johnson Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: James van Riemsdyk (12), Dante Fabbro (9)2–2
- P36:25Kirill Marchenko Goal (21) Snap Shot, assists: Adam Fantilli (15), Zach Werenski (40)1–2
- P30:29Alexander Kerfoot Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: John Marino (5), Clayton Keller (38)0–2
- P20:41Nick Schmaltz Goal (11) Tip-In, assists: Barrett Hayton (15), Clayton Keller (37)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P20:41Nick Schmaltz Goal (11) Tip-In, assists: Barrett Hayton (15), Clayton Keller (37)CBJ 0 – 1 UTAH · UTAH 63% → 79% +15UTAH 63% → 79%+15 pts
- P30:29Alexander Kerfoot Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: John Marino (5), Clayton Keller (38)CBJ 0 – 2 UTAH · UTAH 81% → 94% +13UTAH 81% → 94%+13 pts
- P36:25Kirill Marchenko Goal (21) Snap Shot, assists: Adam Fantilli (15), Zach Werenski (40)CBJ 1 – 2 UTAH · CBJ 4% → 17% +13CBJ 4% → 17%+13 pts
- P311:42Kent Johnson Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: James van Riemsdyk (12), Dante Fabbro (9)CBJ 2 – 2 UTAH · CBJ 13% → 44% +31CBJ 13% → 44%+31 pts
- OT1:01Zach Werenski Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Cole Sillinger (17)CBJ 3 – 2 UTAH · CBJ 46% → 90% +45CBJ 46% → 90%+45 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Utah HC 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- UTAH 66%
- ML CBJ +185 / UTAH -225
- Pre-line forecast
- UTAH 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- UTAH 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.7 pts
- UTAH: Elo 61.7%, market 66.4%
- Fair odds
- UTAH -197
- CBJ +197 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CBJ 2.3 – 3.2 UTAH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CBJ | UTAH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1480 | 1486 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | CBJ on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −8 | +4 | CBJ: Daniil Tarasov: team allows 0.21 more goals than with its usual starter (≈26 weighted starts) · UTAH: Karel Vejmelka: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈22 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | UTAH +83 Elo | UTAH 61.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | UTAH 65.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | UTAH 64.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | UTAH 66.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CBJ | Stat | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 2.822nd of 32 |
| 26th of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 3.016th of 32 |
| 14th of 320.0 | Margin | −0.218th of 32 |
| 15th of 3250.3% | Shot share | 49.1%20th of 32 |
| 30th of 3289.1% | Save percentage | 90.3%14th of 32 |
| 3rd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 32 |
| 29th of 328–18 | Road vs home | 8–1632nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CBJ |  UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 30–21 | 25–25 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 4–5 | 6–14 |
| Underdog | 26–16 | 19–11 |
| Overs–unders | 30–21 | 22–28 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.