St. Louis Blues at Colorado Avalanche, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors COL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blues
Avalanche- Jonathan DrouinGoals2
- Jonathan DrouinAssists1
- Jonathan DrouinPoints3
Scoring summary
- P313:21Joel Kiviranta Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: none0–5
- P117:25Cale Makar Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (60), Jonathan Drouin (14)0–4
- P114:43Jonathan Drouin Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: none0–3
- P17:39Martin Necas Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Devon Toews (18), Artturi Lehkonen (9)0–2
- P14:57Jonathan Drouin Goal (5) Batted, assists: Juuso Parssinen (6), Keaton Middleton (2)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:57Jonathan Drouin Goal (5) Batted, assists: Juuso Parssinen (6), Keaton Middleton (2)STL 0 – 1 COL · COL 61% → 74% +14COL 61% → 74%+14 pts
- P17:39Martin Necas Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Devon Toews (18), Artturi Lehkonen (9)STL 0 – 2 COL · COL 75% → 85% +11COL 75% → 85%+11 pts
- P114:43Jonathan Drouin Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: noneSTL 0 – 3 COL · COL 86% → 93% +7COL 86% → 93%+7 pts
- P117:25Cale Makar Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (60), Jonathan Drouin (14)STL 0 – 4 COL · COL 94% → 98% +4COL 94% → 98%+4 pts
- P313:21Joel Kiviranta Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: noneSTL 0 – 5 COL · COL >99% → >99% +0COL >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Avalanche 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- COL 61%
- ML STL +150 / COL -175
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.6 pts
- COL: Elo 62.0%, market 61.4%
- Fair odds
- COL -159
- STL +159 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 2.4 – 3.1 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1484 | 1534 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | −1 | STL: Joel Hofer: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈28 weighted starts) · COL: Mackenzie Blackwood: team allows 0.04 more goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +85 Elo | COL 62.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 66.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 65.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 61.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| STL | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 322.8 | Goals scored | 3.38th of 32 |
| 17th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.222nd of 32 |
| 21st of 32−0.2 | Margin | +0.113th of 32 |
| 22nd of 3248.7% | Shot share | 52.3%7th of 32 |
| 20th of 3290.0% | Save percentage | 89.3%27th of 32 |
| 21st of 324–6 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 32 |
| 14th of 3212–14 | Road vs home | 14–1215th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 27–24 | 19–33 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 4–9 | 14–27 |
| Underdog | 23–15 | 5–6 |
| Overs–unders | 23–28 | 27–25 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 1–3 COL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.