Toronto Maple Leafs at Edmonton Oilers, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors EDM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Maple Leafs- Matthew KniesGoals1
- Matthew KniesAssists1
- Matthew KniesPoints2
Oilers- Evan BouchardGoals1
- Brett KulakAssists2
- Evan BouchardPoints2
Scoring summary
- P311:33Corey Perry Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Brett Kulak (12), Leon Draisaitl (41)4–3
- P36:04Zach Hyman Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (18), Evan Bouchard (31)4–2
- P30:18Mitch Marner Goal (16) Deflected, assists: Auston Matthews (20), Matthew Knies (14)4–1
- P211:27Evan Bouchard Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Brett Kulak (11), Viktor Arvidsson (11)3–1
- P112:50Bobby McMann Goal (15) Backhand, assists: Morgan Rielly (18), Max Domi (16)3–0
- P19:08Matthew Knies Goal (19) Backhand, assists: Auston Matthews (19), Mitch Marner (54)2–0
- P16:32William Nylander Goal (30) Snap Shot, assists: John Tavares (23)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:32William Nylander Goal (30) Snap Shot, assists: John Tavares (23)TOR 1 – 0 EDM · TOR 42% → 58% +15TOR 42% → 58%+15 pts
- P19:08Matthew Knies Goal (19) Backhand, assists: Auston Matthews (19), Mitch Marner (54)TOR 2 – 0 EDM · TOR 58% → 73% +14TOR 58% → 73%+14 pts
- P112:50Bobby McMann Goal (15) Backhand, assists: Morgan Rielly (18), Max Domi (16)TOR 3 – 0 EDM · TOR 74% → 85% +11TOR 74% → 85%+11 pts
- P211:27Evan Bouchard Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Brett Kulak (11), Viktor Arvidsson (11)TOR 3 – 1 EDM · EDM 7% → 18% +11EDM 7% → 18%+11 pts
- P311:33Corey Perry Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Brett Kulak (12), Leon Draisaitl (41)TOR 4 – 3 EDM · EDM 3% → 18% +15EDM 3% → 18%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Oilers 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- EDM 58%
- ML TOR +130 / EDM -150
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.4 pts
- EDM: Elo 62.4%, market 58.0%
- Fair odds
- EDM -138
- TOR +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 3.0 – 3.5 EDM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | EDM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1520 | 1572 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | 0 | TOR: Joseph Woll: team allows 0.03 more goals than with its usual starter (≈32 weighted starts) · EDM: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +88 Elo | EDM 62.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 60.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 61.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | EDM 58.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TOR | Stat | EDM |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 323.0 | Goals scored | 3.39th of 32 |
| 13th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 2.76th of 32 |
| 13th of 32+0.2 | Margin | +0.66th of 32 |
| 16th of 3250.0% | Shot share | 54.7%2nd of 32 |
| 7th of 3290.9% | Save percentage | 90.2%15th of 32 |
| 21st of 324–6 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 32 |
| 9th of 3211–10 | Road vs home | 18–109th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  EDM |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 25–26 | 20–31 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 17–22 | 16–30 |
| Underdog | 8–4 | 4–1 |
| Overs–unders | 24–27 | 21–30 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 2–1 EDM in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.