Nashville Predators at Chicago Blackhawks, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Predators- Colton SissonsGoals1
- Cole SmithAssists1
- Colton SissonsPoints1
Blackhawks- Ryan DonatoGoals2
- Ryan DonatoAssists2
- Ryan DonatoPoints4
Scoring summary
- P318:57Tommy Novak Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Blankenburg (4), Jonathan Marchessault (24)2–6
- P313:18Ryan Donato Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Vlasic (17)1–6
- P219:51Seth Jones Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Donato (18), Connor Bedard (32)1–5
- P215:24Ryan Donato Goal (17) Backhand, assists: Teuvo Teravainen (27), Frank Nazar (6)1–4
- P25:47Connor Bedard Goal (16) Slap Shot, assists: Ryan Donato (17), Seth Jones (20)1–3
- P114:54Patrick Maroon Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–2
- P18:57Colton Sissons Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Cole Smith (4)1–1
- P18:37Frank Nazar Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Alex Vlasic (16), Teuvo Teravainen (26)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P18:37Frank Nazar Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Alex Vlasic (16), Teuvo Teravainen (26)NSH 0 – 1 CHI · CHI 37% → 52% +15CHI 37% → 52%+15 pts
- P18:57Colton Sissons Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Cole Smith (4)NSH 1 – 1 CHI · NSH 48% → 63% +16NSH 48% → 63%+16 pts
- P114:54Patrick Maroon Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: noneNSH 1 – 2 CHI · CHI 38% → 54% +17CHI 38% → 54%+17 pts
- P25:47Connor Bedard Goal (16) Slap Shot, assists: Ryan Donato (17), Seth Jones (20)NSH 1 – 3 CHI · CHI 58% → 75% +17CHI 58% → 75%+17 pts
- P215:24Ryan Donato Goal (17) Backhand, assists: Teuvo Teravainen (27), Frank Nazar (6)NSH 1 – 4 CHI · CHI 82% → 93% +11CHI 82% → 93%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Predators 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- NSH 64%
- ML NSH -200 / CHI +170
- Pre-line forecast
- NSH 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NSH 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.3 pts
- NSH: Elo 55.0%, market 64.3%
- Fair odds
- NSH -180
- CHI +180 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NSH 3.7 – 2.8 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NSH | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1475 | 1401 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −5 | 0 | NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.11 more goals than with its usual starter (≈44 weighted starts) · CHI: Petr Mrazek: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NSH +35 Elo | NSH 55.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NSH 67.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NSH 65.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NSH 64.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NSH | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 322.6 | Goals scored | 2.630th of 32 |
| 25th of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 3.530th of 32 |
| 29th of 32−0.6 | Margin | −0.831st of 32 |
| 11th of 3250.7% | Shot share | 43.9%32nd of 32 |
| 21st of 3290.0% | Save percentage | 90.0%20th of 32 |
| 13th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 2–831st of 32 |
| 31st of 326–21 | Road vs home | 10–1729th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NSH |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 20–32 | 28–25 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 8–24 | 1–3 |
| Underdog | 12–8 | 27–22 |
| Overs–unders | 22–30 | 27–26 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NSH 6–0 CHI in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.