Chicago Blackhawks at St. Louis Blues, NHL forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors STL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blackhawks- Ilya MikheyevGoals1
- Ilya MikheyevAssists2
- Ilya MikheyevPoints3
Blues- Mathieu JosephGoals1
- Brayden SchennAssists2
- Mathieu JosephPoints2
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Radek Faksa Goal Backhand1–2
- SO0:00Teuvo Teravainen Goal Wrist Shot1–2
- SO0:00Brayden Schenn Goal Backhand1–2
- P315:23Robert Thomas Goal (13) Poke, assists: Philip Broberg (13), Zack Bolduc (12)5–5
- P311:08Ilya Mikheyev Goal (10) Backhand, assists: Nick Foligno (14), Alex Vlasic (18)5–4
- P36:08Teuvo Teravainen Goal (12) Slap Shot, assists: Nick Foligno (13), Ilya Mikheyev (9)4–4
- P34:32Cam Fowler Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Robert Thomas (28), Pavel Buchnevich (23)3–4
- P33:50Alec Martinez Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Teuvo Teravainen (28), Ilya Mikheyev (8)3–3
- P217:09Mathieu Joseph Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Brayden Schenn (21), Dylan Holloway (24)2–3
- P21:50Nathan Walker Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–2
- P21:40Philip Broberg Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Mathieu Joseph (4), Brayden Schenn (20)2–1
- P15:42Ryan Donato Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor Bedard (33)2–0
- P15:04Craig Smith Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Patrick Maroon (10), Alec Martinez (5)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P33:50Alec Martinez Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Teuvo Teravainen (28), Ilya Mikheyev (8)CHI 3 – 3 STL · CHI 17% → 40% +23CHI 17% → 40%+23 pts
- P34:32Cam Fowler Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Robert Thomas (28), Pavel Buchnevich (23)CHI 3 – 4 STL · STL 60% → 84% +23STL 60% → 84%+23 pts
- P36:08Teuvo Teravainen Goal (12) Slap Shot, assists: Nick Foligno (13), Ilya Mikheyev (9)CHI 4 – 4 STL · CHI 16% → 40% +25CHI 16% → 40%+25 pts
- P311:08Ilya Mikheyev Goal (10) Backhand, assists: Nick Foligno (14), Alex Vlasic (18)CHI 5 – 4 STL · CHI 42% → 77% +35CHI 42% → 77%+35 pts
- P315:23Robert Thomas Goal (13) Poke, assists: Philip Broberg (13), Zack Bolduc (12)CHI 5 – 5 STL · STL 12% → 56% +44STL 12% → 56%+44 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blues 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- STL 69%
- ML CHI +215 / STL -260
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 69%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.4 pts
- STL: Elo 69.1%, market 69.5%
- Fair odds
- STL -228
- CHI +228 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 2.2 – 3.3 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1407 | 1478 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | CHI on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −2 | +1 | CHI: Arvid Soderblom: team allows 0.06 more goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) · STL: Jordan Binnington: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈42 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +140 Elo | STL 69.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 71.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 71.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 69.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CHI | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 322.7 | Goals scored | 2.728th of 32 |
| 29th of 323.4 | Goals allowed | 3.016th of 32 |
| 31st of 32−0.8 | Margin | −0.324th of 32 |
| 32nd of 3244.0% | Shot share | 48.1%25th of 32 |
| 16th of 3290.1% | Save percentage | 90.1%17th of 32 |
| 28th of 323–7 | Last 10 | 3–728th of 32 |
| 30th of 326–20 | Road vs home | 11–1628th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 29–25 | 30–25 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 1–3 | 4–9 |
| Underdog | 28–22 | 26–16 |
| Overs–unders | 28–26 | 23–32 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 1–4 STL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.