Florida Panthers at St. Louis Blues, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors STL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Panthers- Mackie SamoskevichGoals1
- Aaron EkbladAssists1
- Mackie SamoskevichPoints1
Blues- Zack BolducGoals1
- Zack BolducAssists1
- Zack BolducPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:48Matthew Tkachuk Goal (21) Tip-In, assists: Sam Reinhart (30), Aleksander Barkov (37)3–2
- P25:18Oskar Sundqvist Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Robert Thomas (27), Zack Bolduc (11)2–2
- P116:54Matthew Tkachuk Goal (20) Tip-In, assists: Aaron Ekblad (23), Aleksander Barkov (36)2–1
- P17:09Mackie Samoskevich Goal (8) Deflected, assists: Sam Bennett (17), Matthew Tkachuk (33)1–1
- P13:31Zack Bolduc Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Ryan Suter (9), Alexey Toropchenko (8)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:31Zack Bolduc Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Ryan Suter (9), Alexey Toropchenko (8)FLA 0 – 1 STL · STL 40% → 55% +15STL 40% → 55%+15 pts
- P17:09Mackie Samoskevich Goal (8) Deflected, assists: Sam Bennett (17), Matthew Tkachuk (33)FLA 1 – 1 STL · FLA 45% → 60% +15FLA 45% → 60%+15 pts
- P116:54Matthew Tkachuk Goal (20) Tip-In, assists: Aaron Ekblad (23), Aleksander Barkov (36)FLA 2 – 1 STL · FLA 59% → 75% +15FLA 59% → 75%+15 pts
- P25:18Oskar Sundqvist Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Robert Thomas (27), Zack Bolduc (11)FLA 2 – 2 STL · STL 25% → 42% +17STL 25% → 42%+17 pts
- P319:48Matthew Tkachuk Goal (21) Tip-In, assists: Sam Reinhart (30), Aleksander Barkov (37)FLA 3 – 2 STL · FLA 51% → >99% +49FLA 51% → >99%+49 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Panthers 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- FLA 61%
- ML FLA -170 / STL +145
- Pre-line forecast
- FLA 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- FLA 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.0 pts
- FLA: Elo 55.6%, market 60.7%
- Fair odds
- FLA -154
- STL +154 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- FLA 3.1 – 2.4 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | FLA | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1553 | 1480 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −2 | −3 | FLA: Spencer Knight: team allows 0.05 more goals than with its usual starter (≈16 weighted starts) · STL: Joel Hofer: team allows 0.08 more goals than with its usual starter (≈28 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | FLA +39 Elo | FLA 55.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | FLA 60.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | FLA 59.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | FLA 60.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| FLA | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 2.728th of 32 |
| 15th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 3.017th of 32 |
| 9th of 32+0.4 | Margin | −0.324th of 32 |
| 4th of 3253.6% | Shot share | 48.3%25th of 32 |
| 15th of 3290.2% | Save percentage | 90.0%18th of 32 |
| 5th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 32 |
| 7th of 3215–12 | Road vs home | 11–1528th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  FLA |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 28–27 | 29–25 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 20–24 | 4–9 |
| Underdog | 8–3 | 25–16 |
| Overs–unders | 29–26 | 23–31 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
FLA 2–1 STL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.