Florida Panthers at Washington Capitals, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Panthers- Nate SchmidtAssists1
- Nate SchmidtPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:59
Alex Ovechkin Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Martin Fehervary (11), Nic Dowd (10)3–6 - P318:21Aliaksei Protas Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: none3–5
- P37:46Matthew Tkachuk Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Nate Schmidt (8), Sam Bennett (16)3–4
- P36:10Nic Dowd Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Andrew Mangiapane (8), Dylan Strome (36)2–4
- P32:19Lars Eller Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: John Carlson (29)2–3
- P24:14Aleksander Barkov Goal (13) Backhand, assists: Carter Verhaeghe (27), Sam Reinhart (29)2–2
- P21:15Tom Wilson Goal (22) Snap Shot, assists: Aliaksei Protas (23)1–2
- P119:30Sam Bennett Goal (17) Backhand, assists: Jesper Boqvist (9)1–1
- P114:08Andrew Mangiapane Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Rasmus Sandin (15), Nic Dowd (9)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P119:30Sam Bennett Goal (17) Backhand, assists: Jesper Boqvist (9)FLA 1 – 1 WSH · FLA 35% → 53% +17FLA 35% → 53%+17 pts
- P21:15Tom Wilson Goal (22) Snap Shot, assists: Aliaksei Protas (23)FLA 1 – 2 WSH · WSH 47% → 65% +18WSH 47% → 65%+18 pts
- P24:14Aleksander Barkov Goal (13) Backhand, assists: Carter Verhaeghe (27), Sam Reinhart (29)FLA 2 – 2 WSH · FLA 34% → 53% +18FLA 34% → 53%+18 pts
- P32:19Lars Eller Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: John Carlson (29)FLA 2 – 3 WSH · WSH 48% → 74% +25WSH 48% → 74%+25 pts
- P36:10Nic Dowd Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Andrew Mangiapane (8), Dylan Strome (36)FLA 2 – 4 WSH · WSH 76% → 93% +17WSH 76% → 93%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Panthers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- FLA 53%
- ML FLA -125 / WSH +105
- Pre-line forecast
- FLA 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- FLA 45%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.8 pts
- FLA: Elo 45.5%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- FLA -114
- WSH +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- FLA 2.8 – 2.7 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | FLA | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1557 | 1550 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +5 | +9 | FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈45 weighted starts) · WSH: Logan Thompson: team allows 0.24 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +31 Elo | WSH 54.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | FLA 50.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 50.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | FLA 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| FLA | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 323.4 | Goals scored | 3.52nd of 32 |
| 13th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 2.52nd of 32 |
| 9th of 32+0.5 | Margin | +1.02nd of 32 |
| 3rd of 3253.5% | Shot share | 49.8%17th of 32 |
| 14th of 3290.4% | Save percentage | 91.4%2nd of 32 |
| 2nd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 32 |
| 6th of 3215–11 | Road vs home | 16–97th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  FLA |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 28–26 | 33–19 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 20–23 | 14–14 |
| Underdog | 8–3 | 19–5 |
| Overs–unders | 28–26 | 23–29 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
FLA 3–1 WSH in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.