Utah Hockey Club at Columbus Blue Jackets, NHL forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CBJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Utah HC- Dylan GuentherGoals1
- Nick BjugstadAssists1
- Lawson CrousePoints1
Blue Jackets- Ivan ProvorovGoals1
- Jordan HarrisAssists1
- Ivan ProvorovPoints1
Scoring summary
- OT4:27Dylan Guenther Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Connor Ingram (1)3–2
- P219:21Ivan Provorov Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Zach Werenski (41)2–2
- P212:33Olli Määttä Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Bjugstad (10), Liam O'Brien (1)2–1
- P22:06Lawson Crouse Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Josh Doan (4), Michael Kesselring (15)1–1
- P15:51Justin Danforth Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Jordan Harris (3)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P15:51Justin Danforth Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Jordan Harris (3)UTAH 0 – 1 CBJ · CBJ 41% → 56% +15CBJ 41% → 56%+15 pts
- P22:06Lawson Crouse Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Josh Doan (4), Michael Kesselring (15)UTAH 1 – 1 CBJ · UTAH 40% → 58% +18UTAH 40% → 58%+18 pts
- P212:33Olli Määttä Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Bjugstad (10), Liam O'Brien (1)UTAH 2 – 1 CBJ · UTAH 57% → 76% +19UTAH 57% → 76%+19 pts
- P219:21Ivan Provorov Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Zach Werenski (41)UTAH 2 – 2 CBJ · CBJ 22% → 44% +22CBJ 22% → 44%+22 pts
- OT4:27Dylan Guenther Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Connor Ingram (1)UTAH 3 – 2 CBJ · UTAH 51% → >99% +49UTAH 51% → >99%+49 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Utah HC 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- UTAH 60%
- ML UTAH -165 / CBJ +140
- Pre-line forecast
- UTAH 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- UTAH 44%
- Ratings vs. market
- −16.4 pts
- UTAH: Elo 43.5%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- UTAH -149
- CBJ +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTAH 3.0 – 2.5 CBJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTAH | CBJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1482 | 1479 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −8 | +6 | UTAH: Connor Ingram: team allows 0.19 more goals than with its usual starter (≈16 weighted starts) · CBJ: Elvis Merzlikins: team allows 0.16 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CBJ +45 Elo | CBJ 56.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | UTAH 50.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CBJ 50.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | UTAH 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| UTAH | Stat | CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 322.8 | Goals scored | 3.35th of 32 |
| 15th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.326th of 32 |
| 19th of 32−0.2 | Margin | 0.014th of 32 |
| 19th of 3249.7% | Shot share | 50.1%15th of 32 |
| 14th of 3290.3% | Save percentage | 89.1%31st of 32 |
| 20th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 32 |
| 11th of 3213–13 | Road vs home | 17–85th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  UTAH |  CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 25–28 | 32–22 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 6–17 | 4–5 |
| Underdog | 19–11 | 28–17 |
| Overs–unders | 22–31 | 31–23 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
UTAH 0–1 CBJ in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.