Columbus Blue Jackets at Buffalo Sabres, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BUF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jackets- Ivan ProvorovGoals1
- Ivan ProvorovAssists1
- Ivan ProvorovPoints2
Sabres- Alex TuchGoals2
- Jason ZuckerAssists2
- Alex TuchPoints3
Scoring summary
- P312:38Ivan Provorov Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Damon Severson (15), Luca Del Bel Belluz (6)2–3
- P218:56Alex Tuch Goal (18) Tip-In, assists: Rasmus Dahlin (34), Jason Zucker (22)1–3
- P212:17Alex Tuch Goal (17) Tip-In, assists: Dennis Gilbert (3), Bowen Byram (21)1–2
- P21:47Kent Johnson Goal (16) Backhand, assists: James van Riemsdyk (14), Ivan Provorov (19)1–1
- P110:07Bowen Byram Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Jason Zucker (21), Alex Tuch (22)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P110:07Bowen Byram Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Jason Zucker (21), Alex Tuch (22)CBJ 0 – 1 BUF · BUF 60% → 74% +14BUF 60% → 74%+14 pts
- P21:47Kent Johnson Goal (16) Backhand, assists: James van Riemsdyk (14), Ivan Provorov (19)CBJ 1 – 1 BUF · CBJ 25% → 41% +16CBJ 25% → 41%+16 pts
- P212:17Alex Tuch Goal (17) Tip-In, assists: Dennis Gilbert (3), Bowen Byram (21)CBJ 1 – 2 BUF · BUF 57% → 76% +19BUF 57% → 76%+19 pts
- P218:56Alex Tuch Goal (18) Tip-In, assists: Rasmus Dahlin (34), Jason Zucker (22)CBJ 1 – 3 BUF · BUF 78% → 92% +14BUF 78% → 92%+14 pts
- P312:38Ivan Provorov Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Damon Severson (15), Luca Del Bel Belluz (6)CBJ 2 – 3 BUF · CBJ 1% → 13% +11CBJ 1% → 13%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Sabres 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- BUF 61%
- ML CBJ +145 / BUF -170
- Pre-line forecast
- BUF 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BUF 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.7 pts
- BUF: Elo 52.0%, market 60.7%
- Fair odds
- BUF -154
- CBJ +154 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CBJ 2.9 – 3.6 BUF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CBJ | BUF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1481 | 1478 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +7 | −11 | CBJ: Elvis Merzlikins: team allows 0.17 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) · BUF: James Reimer: team allows 0.28 more goals than with its usual starter (≈22 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +14 Elo | BUF 52.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BUF 57.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BUF 56.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BUF 60.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CBJ | Stat | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 3.211th of 32 |
| 26th of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 3.429th of 32 |
| 15th of 320.0 | Margin | −0.322nd of 32 |
| 16th of 3249.9% | Shot share | 48.9%22nd of 32 |
| 30th of 3289.1% | Save percentage | 89.4%27th of 32 |
| 8th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 32 |
| 28th of 329–19 | Road vs home | 12–1424th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CBJ |  BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 31–22 | 27–25 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 4–5 | 5–12 |
| Underdog | 27–17 | 22–13 |
| Overs–unders | 31–22 | 31–21 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CBJ 2–2 BUF in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.