New Jersey Devils at Buffalo Sabres, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BUF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Devils- Paul CotterGoals2
- Brett PesceAssists1
- Paul CotterPoints2
Sabres- Tage ThompsonGoals1
- Tage ThompsonAssists2
- Tage ThompsonPoints3
Scoring summary
- P35:32Jack Hughes Goal (21) Backhand, assists: Jesper Bratt (43)3–4
- P30:18Paul Cotter Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Brett Pesce (9)2–4
- P217:25Jason Zucker Goal (18) Tip-In, assists: Tage Thompson (22), Rasmus Dahlin (33)1–4
- P24:38Paul Cotter Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Justin Dowling (3), Dougie Hamilton (27)1–3
- P119:31Ryan McLeod Goal (12) Backhand, assists: Alex Tuch (21), Rasmus Dahlin (32)0–3
- P115:50JJ Peterka Goal (15) Poke, assists: Tage Thompson (21), Dennis Gilbert (2)0–2
- P18:11Tage Thompson Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: Owen Power (22), Bowen Byram (20)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P18:11Tage Thompson Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: Owen Power (22), Bowen Byram (20)NJ 0 – 1 BUF · BUF 45% → 61% +16BUF 45% → 61%+16 pts
- P115:50JJ Peterka Goal (15) Poke, assists: Tage Thompson (21), Dennis Gilbert (2)NJ 0 – 2 BUF · BUF 62% → 77% +15BUF 62% → 77%+15 pts
- P119:31Ryan McLeod Goal (12) Backhand, assists: Alex Tuch (21), Rasmus Dahlin (32)NJ 0 – 3 BUF · BUF 78% → 89% +11BUF 78% → 89%+11 pts
- P24:38Paul Cotter Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Justin Dowling (3), Dougie Hamilton (27)NJ 1 – 3 BUF · NJ 9% → 20% +11NJ 9% → 20%+11 pts
- P35:32Jack Hughes Goal (21) Backhand, assists: Jesper Bratt (43)NJ 3 – 4 BUF · NJ 8% → 25% +17NJ 8% → 25%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Devils 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- NJ 55%
- ML NJ -135 / BUF +115
- Pre-line forecast
- NJ 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NJ 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.1 pts
- NJ: Elo 48.2%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- NJ -124
- BUF +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NJ 3.4 – 3.1 BUF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NJ | BUF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1513 | 1476 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −14 | +1 | NJ: Jake Allen: team allows 0.35 more goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) · BUF: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈41 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +13 Elo | BUF 51.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NJ 59.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NJ 57.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NJ 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NJ | Stat | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 3.111th of 32 |
| 4th of 322.5 | Goals allowed | 3.428th of 32 |
| 5th of 32+0.6 | Margin | −0.322nd of 32 |
| 4th of 3253.6% | Shot share | 48.7%22nd of 32 |
| 6th of 3291.0% | Save percentage | 89.4%26th of 32 |
| 19th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 32 |
| 10th of 3213–12 | Road vs home | 11–1426th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NJ |  BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 22–31 | 26–25 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 19–29 | 5–12 |
| Underdog | 3–2 | 21–13 |
| Overs–unders | 18–35 | 30–21 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NJ 4–1 BUF in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 5.