Columbus Blue Jackets at Dallas Stars, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jackets- Ivan ProvorovGoals1
- Kirill MarchenkoAssists1
- Ivan ProvorovPoints1
Stars- Evgenii DadonovGoals2
- Wyatt JohnstonAssists1
- Evgenii DadonovPoints2
Scoring summary
- P315:47Evgenii Dadonov Goal (15) Backhand, assists: Wyatt Johnston (30), Jamie Benn (19)3–5
- P311:22Evgenii Dadonov Goal (14) Tip-In, assists: Thomas Harley (19), Ilya Lyubushkin (11)3–4
- P215:49Wyatt Johnston Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Thomas Harley (18), Jason Robertson (31)3–3
- P212:02Ivan Provorov Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Mikael Pyyhtia (3), Justin Danforth (7)3–2
- P26:03Logan Stankoven Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Mikael Granlund (31)2–2
- P24:58Adam Fantilli Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Dmitri Voronkov (17), Kirill Marchenko (34)2–1
- P113:36Mason Marchment Goal (13) Tip-In, assists: Lian Bichsel (1), Mavrik Bourque (8)1–1
- P16:43Cole Sillinger Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Kent Johnson (19), James van Riemsdyk (13)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P24:58Adam Fantilli Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: Dmitri Voronkov (17), Kirill Marchenko (34)CBJ 2 – 1 DAL · CBJ 37% → 55% +19CBJ 37% → 55%+19 pts
- P26:03Logan Stankoven Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Mikael Granlund (31)CBJ 2 – 2 DAL · DAL 44% → 63% +19DAL 44% → 63%+19 pts
- P212:02Ivan Provorov Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Mikael Pyyhtia (3), Justin Danforth (7)CBJ 3 – 2 DAL · CBJ 38% → 59% +21CBJ 38% → 59%+21 pts
- P215:49Wyatt Johnston Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Thomas Harley (18), Jason Robertson (31)CBJ 3 – 3 DAL · DAL 39% → 61% +23DAL 39% → 61%+23 pts
- P311:22Evgenii Dadonov Goal (14) Tip-In, assists: Thomas Harley (19), Ilya Lyubushkin (11)CBJ 3 – 4 DAL · DAL 57% → 87% +30DAL 57% → 87%+30 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Stars 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 67.6% of 306 graded games.
- Market
- DAL 67%
- ML CBJ +195 / DAL -230
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.4 pts
- DAL: Elo 63.9%, market 67.3%
- Fair odds
- DAL -206
- CBJ +206 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CBJ 2.2 – 3.3 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CBJ | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1483 | 1567 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +10 | −9 | CBJ: Elvis Merzlikins: team allows 0.24 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) · DAL: Casey DeSmith: team allows 0.24 more goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +99 Elo | DAL 63.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 73.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 71.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 67.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CBJ | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 3.210th of 32 |
| 26th of 323.3 | Goals allowed | 2.52nd of 32 |
| 14th of 32+0.1 | Margin | +0.73rd of 32 |
| 16th of 3250.1% | Shot share | 52.7%6th of 32 |
| 29th of 3289.2% | Save percentage | 91.2%3rd of 32 |
| 3rd of 327–3 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 32 |
| 28th of 329–18 | Road vs home | 19–73rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CBJ |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 31–21 | 23–28 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 4–5 | 20–24 |
| Underdog | 27–16 | 3–4 |
| Overs–unders | 30–22 | 19–32 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–9 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CBJ 0–2 DAL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.