Philadelphia Flyers at Utah Hockey Club, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTAH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flyers- Tyson FoersterGoals1
- Bobby BrinkAssists1
- Rodrigo AbolsPoints1
Utah HC- Dylan GuentherGoals2
- Mikhail SergachevAssists2
- Dylan GuentherPoints3
Scoring summary
- OT4:59Dylan Guenther Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Mikhail Sergachev (24), Clayton Keller (39)2–3
- P38:40Dylan Guenther Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Barrett Hayton (17), Mikhail Sergachev (23)2–2
- P24:29Tyson Foerster Goal (14) Tip-In, assists: Sean Couturier (17), Bobby Brink (16)2–1
- P23:32Mikhail Sergachev Goal (10) Slap Shot, assists: Dylan Guenther (19), Barrett Hayton (16)1–1
- P12:02Rodrigo Abols Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Travis Sanheim (19)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:02Rodrigo Abols Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Travis Sanheim (19)PHI 1 – 0 UTAH · PHI 43% → 58% +15PHI 43% → 58%+15 pts
- P23:32Mikhail Sergachev Goal (10) Slap Shot, assists: Dylan Guenther (19), Barrett Hayton (16)PHI 1 – 1 UTAH · UTAH 37% → 56% +18UTAH 37% → 56%+18 pts
- P24:29Tyson Foerster Goal (14) Tip-In, assists: Sean Couturier (17), Bobby Brink (16)PHI 2 – 1 UTAH · PHI 45% → 63% +19PHI 45% → 63%+19 pts
- P38:40Dylan Guenther Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Barrett Hayton (17), Mikhail Sergachev (23)PHI 2 – 2 UTAH · UTAH 22% → 53% +31UTAH 22% → 53%+31 pts
- OT4:59Dylan Guenther Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Mikhail Sergachev (24), Clayton Keller (39)PHI 2 – 3 UTAH · UTAH 50% → 100% +50UTAH 50% → 100%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Utah HC 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- UTAH 57%
- ML PHI +125 / UTAH -145
- Pre-line forecast
- UTAH 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- UTAH 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.7 pts
- UTAH: Elo 57.8%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- UTAH -133
- PHI +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 2.5 – 3.0 UTAH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | UTAH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1458 | 1480 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +7 | +4 | PHI: Samuel Ersson: team allows 0.16 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) · UTAH: Karel Vejmelka: team allows 0.10 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈22 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | UTAH +55 Elo | UTAH 57.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | UTAH 54.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | UTAH 55.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | UTAH 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PHI | Stat | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 322.9 | Goals scored | 2.824th of 32 |
| 29th of 323.4 | Goals allowed | 3.016th of 32 |
| 27th of 32−0.5 | Margin | −0.220th of 32 |
| 12th of 3250.4% | Shot share | 49.3%19th of 32 |
| 32nd of 3288.4% | Save percentage | 90.3%14th of 32 |
| 20th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 3–728th of 32 |
| 25th of 3211–18 | Road vs home | 8–1832nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 26–28 | 25–27 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 6–9 | 6–16 |
| Underdog | 20–19 | 19–11 |
| Overs–unders | 27–27 | 22–30 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 0–1 UTAH in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.