Philadelphia Flyers at Colorado Avalanche, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors COL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flyers
Avalanche- Samuel GirardGoals1
- Jonathan DrouinAssists2
- Jonathan DrouinPoints2
Scoring summary
- P217:28Nathan MacKinnon Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Cale Makar (39), Jonathan Drouin (16)0–2
- P28:33Samuel Girard Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Casey Mittelstadt (23), Jonathan Drouin (15)0–1
Turning points
The 2 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P28:33Samuel Girard Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Casey Mittelstadt (23), Jonathan Drouin (15)PHI 0 – 1 COL · COL 61% → 78% +17COL 61% → 78%+17 pts
- P217:28Nathan MacKinnon Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Cale Makar (39), Jonathan Drouin (16)PHI 0 – 2 COL · COL 79% → 92% +13COL 79% → 92%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Avalanche 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- COL 64%
- ML PHI +170 / COL -205
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.6 pts
- COL: Elo 65.1%, market 64.5%
- Fair odds
- COL -181
- PHI +181 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 2.3 – 3.2 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1460 | 1539 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +6 | +1 | PHI: Samuel Ersson: team allows 0.16 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) · COL: Mackenzie Blackwood: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +108 Elo | COL 65.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 62.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 62.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 64.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PHI | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 322.9 | Goals scored | 3.37th of 32 |
| 29th of 323.4 | Goals allowed | 3.120th of 32 |
| 27th of 32−0.5 | Margin | +0.211th of 32 |
| 12th of 3250.6% | Shot share | 52.6%7th of 32 |
| 32nd of 3288.2% | Save percentage | 89.5%25th of 32 |
| 12th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 32 |
| 22nd of 3211–17 | Road vs home | 15–1215th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 26–27 | 20–33 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 6–9 | 15–27 |
| Underdog | 20–18 | 5–6 |
| Overs–unders | 27–26 | 27–26 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 1–2 COL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.