Vancouver Canucks at Utah Hockey Club, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTAH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canucks- Jake DeBruskGoals1
- Pius SuterAssists1
- Jake DeBruskPoints1
Utah HC- Logan CooleyGoals1
- Clayton KellerAssists2
- Clayton KellerPoints2
Scoring summary
- P314:07Dylan Guenther Goal (21) Tip-In, assists: Nick Schmaltz (33), Clayton Keller (43)1–2
- P23:51Logan Cooley Goal (16) Tip-In, assists: John Marino (6), Clayton Keller (42)1–1
- P21:43Jake DeBrusk Goal (21) Snap Shot, assists: Elias Pettersson (24), Pius Suter (12)1–0
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P21:43Jake DeBrusk Goal (21) Snap Shot, assists: Elias Pettersson (24), Pius Suter (12)VAN 1 – 0 UTAH · VAN 43% → 61% +18VAN 43% → 61%+18 pts
- P23:51Logan Cooley Goal (16) Tip-In, assists: John Marino (6), Clayton Keller (42)VAN 1 – 1 UTAH · UTAH 38% → 57% +19UTAH 38% → 57%+19 pts
- P314:07Dylan Guenther Goal (21) Tip-In, assists: Nick Schmaltz (33), Clayton Keller (43)VAN 1 – 2 UTAH · UTAH 53% → 89% +36UTAH 53% → 89%+36 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Utah HC 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- UTAH 59%
- ML VAN +135 / UTAH -155
- Pre-line forecast
- UTAH 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- UTAH 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.2 pts
- UTAH: Elo 54.7%, market 58.8%
- Fair odds
- UTAH -143
- VAN +143 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VAN 2.5 – 3.0 UTAH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VAN | UTAH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1482 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | −30 | UTAH and VAN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −19 | 0 | VAN: Arturs Silovs: team allows 0.47 more goals than with its usual starter (≈15 weighted starts) · UTAH: Karel Vejmelka: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈23 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | UTAH +33 Elo | UTAH 54.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | UTAH 57.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | UTAH 57.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | UTAH 58.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VAN | Stat | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 322.8 | Goals scored | 2.822nd of 32 |
| 16th of 323.0 | Goals allowed | 3.119th of 32 |
| 20th of 32−0.2 | Margin | −0.221st of 32 |
| 24th of 3248.6% | Shot share | 49.7%18th of 32 |
| 26th of 3289.6% | Save percentage | 90.0%16th of 32 |
| 6th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 32 |
| 10th of 3215–13 | Road vs home | 9–1831st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  VAN |  UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 24–32 | 26–31 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 1–9 |
| Favorite | 7–19 | 6–18 |
| Underdog | 17–13 | 20–13 |
| Overs–unders | 26–30 | 25–32 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VAN 0–1 UTAH in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.