Colorado Avalanche at Vancouver Canucks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VAN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Avalanche
Canucks- Jake DeBruskGoals1
- Filip HronekAssists2
- Jake DeBruskPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:51Drew O'Connor Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Filip Chytil (10), Tyler Myers (14)0–3
- P38:20Brock Boeser Goal (17) Tip-In, assists: Jake DeBrusk (14), Filip Hronek (14)0–2
- P24:26Jake DeBrusk Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Filip Hronek (13)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P24:26Jake DeBrusk Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Filip Hronek (13)COL 0 – 1 VAN · VAN 42% → 61% +19VAN 42% → 61%+19 pts
- P38:20Brock Boeser Goal (17) Tip-In, assists: Jake DeBrusk (14), Filip Hronek (14)COL 0 – 2 VAN · VAN 76% → 94% +18VAN 76% → 94%+18 pts
- P319:51Drew O'Connor Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Filip Chytil (10), Tyler Myers (14)COL 0 – 3 VAN · VAN 100% → 100% +0VAN 100% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Avalanche 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- COL 60%
- ML COL -165 / VAN +140
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.1 pts
- COL: Elo 51.8%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- COL -149
- VAN +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.0 – 2.5 VAN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | VAN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1541 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +4 | −1 | COL: Mackenzie Blackwood: team allows 0.10 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) · VAN: Thatcher Demko: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +13 Elo | COL 51.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 50.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 51.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| COL | Stat | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 323.3 | Goals scored | 2.821st of 32 |
| 19th of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.222nd of 32 |
| 12th of 32+0.2 | Margin | −0.323rd of 32 |
| 7th of 3252.6% | Shot share | 48.6%23rd of 32 |
| 25th of 3289.6% | Save percentage | 89.0%31st of 32 |
| 12th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 32 |
| 6th of 3215–11 | Road vs home | 9–1730th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  VAN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 21–33 | 22–30 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 16–27 | 7–18 |
| Underdog | 5–6 | 15–12 |
| Overs–unders | 27–27 | 26–26 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 3–1 VAN in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.