Toronto Maple Leafs at Vancouver Canucks, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VAN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Maple Leafs- Morgan RiellyGoals1
- Oliver Ekman-LarssonAssists1
- Morgan RiellyPoints1
Canucks- Filip HronekGoals1
- Filip HronekAssists1
- Filip HronekPoints2
Scoring summary
- P38:56Brock Boeser Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Filip Chytil (11), Filip Hronek (15)1–2
- P219:54Morgan Rielly Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Oliver Ekman-Larsson (19), Auston Matthews (25)1–1
- P17:00Filip Hronek Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Elias Pettersson (23), Derek Forbort (5)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P17:00Filip Hronek Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Elias Pettersson (23), Derek Forbort (5)TOR 0 – 1 VAN · VAN 42% → 58% +15VAN 42% → 58%+15 pts
- P219:54Morgan Rielly Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Oliver Ekman-Larsson (19), Auston Matthews (25)TOR 1 – 1 VAN · TOR 30% → 55% +24TOR 30% → 55%+24 pts
- P38:56Brock Boeser Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Filip Chytil (11), Filip Hronek (15)TOR 1 – 2 VAN · VAN 47% → 78% +31VAN 47% → 78%+31 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Maple Leafs 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 58%
- ML TOR -150 / VAN +130
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.1 pts
- TOR: Elo 47.8%, market 58.0%
- Fair odds
- TOR -138
- VAN +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 3.0 – 2.5 VAN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | VAN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1531 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −4 | +3 | TOR: Joseph Woll: team allows 0.09 more goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) · VAN: Thatcher Demko: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VAN +15 Elo | VAN 52.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 51.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 58.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TOR | Stat | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 2.823rd of 32 |
| 12th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 3.119th of 32 |
| 11th of 32+0.3 | Margin | −0.219th of 32 |
| 18th of 3249.8% | Shot share | 48.6%22nd of 32 |
| 7th of 3291.0% | Save percentage | 89.3%28th of 32 |
| 6th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 32 |
| 6th of 3214–10 | Road vs home | 10–1730th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  VAN |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 28–26 | 23–31 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 19–22 | 7–19 |
| Underdog | 9–4 | 16–12 |
| Overs–unders | 26–28 | 26–28 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 1–2 VAN in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.