Toronto Maple Leafs at Seattle Kraken, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SEA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Maple Leafs- Matthew KniesGoals1
- John TavaresAssists1
- Philippe MyersPoints1
Kraken- Eeli TolvanenGoals1
- Joey DaccordAssists1
- Eeli TolvanenPoints1
Scoring summary
- P35:43Eeli Tolvanen Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Oliver Bjorkstrand (20), Joey Daccord (2)3–1
- P212:37Matthew Knies Goal (21) Tip-In, assists: Jake McCabe (13), Auston Matthews (24)3–0
- P118:53Bobby McMann Goal (17) Tip-In, assists: Morgan Rielly (20), Max Domi (17)2–0
- P17:23Philippe Myers Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: John Tavares (24), Mitch Marner (55)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P17:23Philippe Myers Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: John Tavares (24), Mitch Marner (55)TOR 1 – 0 SEA · TOR 59% → 73% +14TOR 59% → 73%+14 pts
- P118:53Bobby McMann Goal (17) Tip-In, assists: Morgan Rielly (20), Max Domi (17)TOR 2 – 0 SEA · TOR 74% → 86% +12TOR 74% → 86%+12 pts
- P212:37Matthew Knies Goal (21) Tip-In, assists: Jake McCabe (13), Auston Matthews (24)TOR 3 – 0 SEA · TOR 89% → 96% +7TOR 89% → 96%+7 pts
- P35:43Eeli Tolvanen Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Oliver Bjorkstrand (20), Joey Daccord (2)TOR 3 – 1 SEA · SEA <1% → 5% +4SEA <1% → 5%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Maple Leafs 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 60%
- ML TOR -165 / SEA +140
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.2 pts
- TOR: Elo 57.8%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- TOR -149
- SEA +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 3.5 – 3.0 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1528 | 1460 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +26 | +5 | TOR: Anthony Stolarz: team allows 0.65 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈28 weighted starts) · SEA: Joey Daccord: team allows 0.12 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +54 Elo | TOR 57.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 56.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 57.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TOR | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 3.014th of 32 |
| 13th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 3.224th of 32 |
| 11th of 32+0.2 | Margin | −0.221st of 32 |
| 18th of 3249.7% | Shot share | 48.1%26th of 32 |
| 7th of 3291.0% | Save percentage | 89.8%22nd of 32 |
| 12th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 4–622nd of 32 |
| 8th of 3213–10 | Road vs home | 13–1727th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 27–26 | 28–27 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 18–22 | 7–12 |
| Underdog | 9–4 | 21–15 |
| Overs–unders | 26–27 | 28–27 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 3–0 SEA in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.