Toronto Maple Leafs at Calgary Flames, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CGY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Maple Leafs- Matthew KniesGoals1
- Matthew KniesAssists1
- Matthew KniesPoints2
Flames- Matt CoronatoGoals1
- MacKenzie WeegarAssists2
- Nazem KadriPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:16William Nylander Goal (33) Wrist Shot, assists: none6–3
- P36:02Joel Farabee Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Jonathan Huberdeau (19), MacKenzie Weegar (23)5–3
- P35:44Matthew Knies Goal (20) Poke, assists: Auston Matthews (23)5–2
- P218:18William Nylander Goal (32) Wrist Shot, assists: Max Pacioretty (8)4–2
- P212:28Bobby McMann Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Steven Lorentz (7)3–2
- P25:58Yegor Sharangovich Goal (11) Tip-In, assists: MacKenzie Weegar (22), Nazem Kadri (20)2–2
- P23:17John Tavares Goal (21) Backhand, assists: Auston Matthews (22), Morgan Rielly (19)2–1
- P22:36William Nylander Goal (31) Snap Shot, assists: Matthew Knies (15), Auston Matthews (21)1–1
- P114:16Matt Coronato Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Huberdeau (18), Nazem Kadri (19)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P114:16Matt Coronato Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Huberdeau (18), Nazem Kadri (19)TOR 0 – 1 CGY · CGY 45% → 62% +16CGY 45% → 62%+16 pts
- P22:36William Nylander Goal (31) Snap Shot, assists: Matthew Knies (15), Auston Matthews (21)TOR 1 – 1 CGY · TOR 36% → 54% +18TOR 36% → 54%+18 pts
- P23:17John Tavares Goal (21) Backhand, assists: Auston Matthews (22), Morgan Rielly (19)TOR 2 – 1 CGY · TOR 54% → 72% +17TOR 54% → 72%+17 pts
- P25:58Yegor Sharangovich Goal (11) Tip-In, assists: MacKenzie Weegar (22), Nazem Kadri (20)TOR 2 – 2 CGY · CGY 28% → 46% +18CGY 28% → 46%+18 pts
- P212:28Bobby McMann Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Steven Lorentz (7)TOR 3 – 2 CGY · TOR 54% → 74% +20TOR 54% → 74%+20 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Maple Leafs 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 55%
- ML TOR -135 / CGY +115
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.7 pts
- TOR: Elo 49.5%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- TOR -124
- CGY +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 2.9 – 2.6 CGY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | CGY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1523 | 1480 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | +10 | TOR: Joseph Woll: team allows 0.03 more goals than with its usual starter (≈32 weighted starts) · CGY: Dustin Wolf: team allows 0.26 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CGY +3 Elo | CGY 50.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 58.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 56.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TOR | Stat | CGY |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 323.1 | Goals scored | 2.727th of 32 |
| 13th of 322.9 | Goals allowed | 2.914th of 32 |
| 13th of 32+0.2 | Margin | −0.219th of 32 |
| 18th of 3249.7% | Shot share | 50.1%15th of 32 |
| 5th of 3291.0% | Save percentage | 90.5%13th of 32 |
| 20th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 32 |
| 8th of 3212–10 | Road vs home | 16–1113th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  CGY |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 26–26 | 28–24 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 17–22 | 9–10 |
| Underdog | 9–4 | 19–14 |
| Overs–unders | 25–27 | 20–32 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 2–0 CGY in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.