Vancouver Canucks at San Jose Sharks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canucks- Drew O'ConnorGoals1
- Tyler MyersAssists1
- Dakota JoshuaPoints1
Sharks- Tyler ToffoliGoals1
- William EklundAssists1
- Tyler ToffoliPoints1
Scoring summary
- OT0:33Drew O'Connor Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–1
- P318:32Tyler Toffoli Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: William Eklund (29)1–1
- P38:04Dakota Joshua Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Pius Suter (11), Tyler Myers (15)1–0
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P38:04Dakota Joshua Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Pius Suter (11), Tyler Myers (15)VAN 1 – 0 SJ · VAN 56% → 84% +27VAN 56% → 84%+27 pts
- P318:32Tyler Toffoli Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: William Eklund (29)VAN 1 – 1 SJ · SJ <1% → 48% +47SJ <1% → 48%+47 pts
- OT0:33Drew O'Connor Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: noneVAN 2 – 1 SJ · VAN 54% → 92% +39VAN 54% → 92%+39 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Canucks 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- VAN 64%
- ML VAN -200 / SJ +165
- Pre-line forecast
- VAN 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VAN 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.8 pts
- VAN: Elo 64.6%, market 63.9%
- Fair odds
- VAN -177
- SJ +177 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VAN 3.1 – 2.4 SJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VAN | SJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1376 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | −11 | VAN: Thatcher Demko: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) · SJ: Vitek Vanecek: team allows 0.28 more goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VAN +105 Elo | VAN 64.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VAN 65.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VAN 65.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | VAN 63.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VAN | Stat | SJ |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 322.8 | Goals scored | 2.629th of 32 |
| 21st of 323.1 | Goals allowed | 3.732nd of 32 |
| 21st of 32−0.2 | Margin | −1.132nd of 32 |
| 22nd of 3248.8% | Shot share | 45.5%31st of 32 |
| 29th of 3289.2% | Save percentage | 89.3%28th of 32 |
| 13th of 325–5 | Last 10 | 2–831st of 32 |
| 9th of 3214–12 | Road vs home | 9–1831st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  VAN |  SJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 23–30 | 33–22 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 7–18 | — |
| Underdog | 16–12 | 33–22 |
| Overs–unders | 26–27 | 26–29 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
VAN 5–1 SJ in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.