Montreal Canadiens at San Jose Sharks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canadiens- Alex NewhookGoals1
- Kirby DachAssists2
- Alex NewhookPoints2
Sharks- Tyler ToffoliGoals1
- Tyler ToffoliAssists1
- Tyler ToffoliPoints2
Scoring summary
- P315:56Joel Armia Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Evans (16)4–3
- P310:27Tyler Toffoli Goal (19) Backhand, assists: Macklin Celebrini (22), Jake Walman (23)3–3
- P32:40Brendan Gallagher Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Kirby Dach (11), Alex Newhook (6)3–2
- P214:51Collin Graf Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Barclay Goodrow (3)2–2
- P24:53Alex Newhook Goal (10) Slap Shot, assists: Alexandre Carrier (16), Kirby Dach (10)2–1
- P20:52Cole Caufield Goal (26) Snap Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (37), Lane Hutson (37)1–1
- P15:52Macklin Celebrini Goal (17) Slap Shot, assists: Tyler Toffoli (15), William Eklund (28)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P20:52Cole Caufield Goal (26) Snap Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (37), Lane Hutson (37)MTL 1 – 1 SJ · MTL 38% → 56% +18MTL 38% → 56%+18 pts
- P214:51Collin Graf Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Barclay Goodrow (3)MTL 2 – 2 SJ · SJ 25% → 45% +21SJ 25% → 45%+21 pts
- P32:40Brendan Gallagher Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Kirby Dach (11), Alex Newhook (6)MTL 3 – 2 SJ · MTL 54% → 78% +24MTL 54% → 78%+24 pts
- P310:27Tyler Toffoli Goal (19) Backhand, assists: Macklin Celebrini (22), Jake Walman (23)MTL 3 – 3 SJ · SJ 16% → 47% +31SJ 16% → 47%+31 pts
- P315:56Joel Armia Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Evans (16)MTL 4 – 3 SJ · MTL 52% → 93% +41MTL 52% → 93%+41 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Canadiens 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- MTL 57%
- ML MTL -145 / SJ +125
- Pre-line forecast
- MTL 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MTL 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.1 pts
- MTL: Elo 57.0%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- MTL -133
- SJ +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MTL 3.5 – 3.0 SJ
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MTL | SJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1460 | 1378 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −12 | −14 | MTL: Sam Montembeault: team allows 0.29 more goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) · SJ: Alexandar Georgiev: team allows 0.34 more goals than with its usual starter (≈43 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MTL +49 Elo | MTL 57.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MTL 57.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MTL 57.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MTL 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MTL | Stat | SJ |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 322.9 | Goals scored | 2.630th of 32 |
| 29th of 323.4 | Goals allowed | 3.732nd of 32 |
| 26th of 32−0.4 | Margin | −1.132nd of 32 |
| 29th of 3246.9% | Shot share | 45.2%31st of 32 |
| 29th of 3289.2% | Save percentage | 89.4%27th of 32 |
| 20th of 324–6 | Last 10 | 2–830th of 32 |
| 19th of 3211–14 | Road vs home | 9–1731st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MTL |  SJ |
|---|---|---|
| Puck line | 30–22 | 32–22 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 1–4 | — |
| Underdog | 29–18 | 32–22 |
| Overs–unders | 27–25 | 25–29 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MTL 1–1 SJ in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.